Re: Man Bites Dog (917 Views)
Posted by:
Wild Again (IP Logged)
Date: May 13, 2018 10:47PM
Unless I am very mistaken Instilled Regard was given by someone on this board as a wet horse move up.
So the discussion of Instilled Regard may be pertinent.
Just sayin. And if it was never mentioned and I imagined it, I apologize in advance.
Regarding the 4-5 coin toss bet, read up on the idea of Gambler's Ruin.
Your statement is not as simple as you make it out to be.
The Kelly criteria was theorized invented choose whichever word is best for you, to explain a set of circumstances where betting plus expected value can still lead to the Gambler's Ruin.
The problem with horse racing is it is almost impossible to have enough information to know 100% the correct amount to bet.
Or in other words it is very hard to maximize your play.
To the thorograph board this may be an assertion as I have presented neither the science nor the history of the Kelly criteria but if you are really that curious I suggest you do your own research.
You might be pleasantly surprised.
Thanks
John Perona