Preakness (785 Views)
Posted by: JR
Date: May 15, 2019 10:08PM
A very competitive and bettable Preakness
Pattern wise I’m curious to hear others opinions on IMPROBABLE and WAR OF WILL. Improbable’s regression in the derby doesn’t look good on paper but Baffert has brought enough derby alumni back on two weeks rest to win this 7 times. Is this his Lookin At Lucky? As the favorite, I’ll be betting that he’s gassed after the tight spacing of races in his 3yo campaign.
WAR OF WILL is harder to gauge. His last number is a troubled trip toss and we know where he was when he was interfered with. But 2 weeks rest and a still as yet unexplained bomb at the Fairgrounds has me speculating that this horse could have issues. Not my key as the likely second choice.
From the rail out
BOURBON WAR Same question applies. What happened after the FOY? He has had plenty of time to recover from that big new top and a return to it gives him a shot. I’d still like to see this one on the turf being out of an Artie Schiller mare.
WARRIOR’S CHARGE Great line with the nice little forward move in the last, rested and a decent 2yo top. He’ll need to improve a couple of points but he should save all of the ground on the front end and he has Cox in his corner.
IMPROBABLE Defeated Derby favorite coming in off a regression. Fourth race in 8 weeks. I’m betting he’s still recovering from the negative top at Oaklawn and the tight spacing of races. Capable on his best but just one of the others on his B race.
OWENDALE Blossomed big time in the Bluegrass and looked good doing it. Rested and a trainer who clicks at 38% pairups after a new top of better than 1pt. This is 5pts. But his top is amongst the fastest in here and he’s listed at 10-1. I’ll use him in all 3 positions.
MARKET KING On paper has no business being in this race. OXBOW looked better.
ALWAYSMINING has had it pretty easy so far and this will test him but he has a great line and could go forward with him only 2pts better than his 2yo top. If he does, he has a very good chance. At 8-1 he’s my key.
SIGNALMAN has an explosive pattern that often yields a new top. He’ll need one to compete here but at 30-1 I’m using him.
BODEXPRESS I really wanted to use this one after watching him hold his own in the derby until the incident at the 5/16 pole. But, on paper, it looks like they’re trying to do too much with this horse in too short of a period of time after a troubled but, none the less taxing effort in the derby. I’m leaving him out.
EVERFAST On paper he looks misplaced in this race. No number strength. A messy pattern. Nothing for me to like. Especially the memory he brings back of FIRST DUDE, Roman’s other bomb that ruined me in this race.
LAUGHING FOX comes in with a somewhat similar pattern to COUNTRY HOUSE but lacking the 2yo foundation. He could move forward again and Asmussen doesn’t come to Pimlico without a purpose. 20-1 looks pretty enticing.
ANOTHERTWISTAFATE I’m not as excited about this horse as others seem to be but he does have 2 wins at 1 1/8 miles. Coming in off paired tops but they’re not fast and 6-1 is short. I’ll play against him and not lose any sleep over it.
WIN WIN WIN has run some fast sprints but has gotten slower around two turns. My bet is his future is in shorter races. They are adding blinkers which could mean they want him closer to the pace. Drawn wide. I’m leaving him off.
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