JR Wrote:
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> A very competitive and bettable Preakness
>
> Pattern wise I’m curious to hear others opinions
> on IMPROBABLE and WAR OF WILL. Improbable’s
> regression in the derby doesn’t look good on
> paper but Baffert has brought enough derby alumni
> back on two weeks rest to win this 7 times. Is
> this his Lookin At Lucky? As the favorite, I’ll
> be betting that he’s gassed after the tight
> spacing of races in his 3yo campaign.
>
> WAR OF WILL is harder to gauge. His last number is
> a troubled trip toss and we know where he was when
> he was interfered with. But 2 weeks rest and a
> still as yet unexplained bomb at the Fairgrounds
> has me speculating that this horse could have
> issues. Not my key as the likely second choice.
>
> From the rail out
>
> BOURBON WAR Same question applies. What happened
> after the FOY? He has had plenty of time to
> recover from that big new top and a return to it
> gives him a shot. I’d still like to see this one
> on the turf being out of an Artie Schiller mare.
>
> WARRIOR’S CHARGE Great line with the nice little
> forward move in the last, rested and a decent 2yo
> top. He’ll need to improve a couple of points
> but he should save all of the ground on the front
> end and he has Cox in his corner.
>
> IMPROBABLE Defeated Derby favorite coming in off a
> regression. Fourth race in 8 weeks. I’m betting
> he’s still recovering from the negative top at
> Oaklawn and the tight spacing of races. Capable on
> his best but just one of the others on his B
> race.
>
> OWENDALE Blossomed big time in the Bluegrass and
> looked good doing it. Rested and a trainer who
> clicks at 38% pairups after a new top of better
> than 1pt. This is 5pts. But his top is amongst the
> fastest in here and he’s listed at 10-1. I’ll
> use him in all 3 positions.
>
> MARKET KING On paper has no business being in this
> race. OXBOW looked better.
>
> ALWAYSMINING has had it pretty easy so far and
> this will test him but he has a great line and
> could go forward with him only 2pts better than
> his 2yo top. If he does, he has a very good
> chance. At 8-1 he’s my key.
>
> SIGNALMAN has an explosive pattern that often
> yields a new top. He’ll need one to compete here
> but at 30-1 I’m using him.
>
> BODEXPRESS I really wanted to use this one after
> watching him hold his own in the derby until the
> incident at the 5/16 pole. But, on paper, it looks
> like they’re trying to do too much with this
> horse in too short of a period of time after a
> troubled but, none the less taxing effort in the
> derby. I’m leaving him out.
>
> EVERFAST On paper he looks misplaced in this race.
> No number strength. A messy pattern. Nothing for
> me to like. Especially the memory he brings back
> of FIRST DUDE, Roman’s other bomb that ruined me
> in this race.
>
> LAUGHING FOX comes in with a somewhat similar
> pattern to COUNTRY HOUSE but lacking the 2yo
> foundation. He could move forward again and
> Asmussen doesn’t come to Pimlico without a
> purpose. 20-1 looks pretty enticing.
>
> ANOTHERTWISTAFATE I’m not as excited about this
> horse as others seem to be but he does have 2 wins
> at 1 1/8 miles. Coming in off paired tops but
> they’re not fast and 6-1 is short. I’ll play
> against him and not lose any sleep over it.
>
> WIN WIN WIN has run some fast sprints but has
> gotten slower around two turns. My bet is his
> future is in shorter races. They are adding
> blinkers which could mean they want him closer to
> the pace. Drawn wide. I’m leaving him off.


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