Travers 150 Pick 5 (963 Views)
Posted by: FrankD.
Date: August 24, 2019 07:04AM
I’ve decided not to play my original intended Pick 5 singling Shancelot & Elate.
There isn’t enough risk/reward of it paying anything and HOPE is not a business plan!
It’s going to be a beautiful day with a large crowd that will end with the largest traffic jam in the history of the Spa. As 45,000 or so are exiting the track about a mile away 25,000 will be coming into town at SPAC for A Kiss farewell tour stop. For those that have never been, it will be a parking lot......
No live appearance for FD for the first time since 1973, I’m done with Travers Day.
The H. Allen Jerkens:
The reasons to take a shot against Shancelot have been covered.
I don’t like Hog Creek, a one number horse who spots weight to others who have run as fast/faster than he.
Borracho, Nitrous, Mind Control & Rowayton
The Ballston Spa:
A pair of Chads (2,9) Indian Blessing & Starship Jubilee
The Personal Ensign:
I like Elate but if I can beat Shancelot? I can’t let Midnight Bisou knock me out of a pay day......
The Sword Dancer:
You can make a strong case for any of the 5 fast horses. Saddlers Joy just doesn’t win enough for me to be put on top. Big figs for suck up 2,3,4 finishes.
The Chads what else!!! Ya Primo & Annals of Time, The Channels, Cat & Maker.
The 150th Travers Stakes:
Jerry Brown sent me a text on Tuesday night saying, “I know who you will be betting in the Travers” Ok fill me in as I had not seen any data yet.
“Baffert he is fastest and it’s Baffert in NY and so will I” JB has clearly stated his opinion in the stakes run down.
The old Covello rule of never letting the fastest horse in the race beat you in a horizontal as well as Baffert’s record of running new tops shipping east make me include this one. Baffert, Chad & Navarro are enough to keep you up at night for sure!
I’m not crazy about Gusto picking up 8lbs from a very fast Haskell and not sure he wants 10F, BUT it’s BB in NY🧙♂️
I had no intention of including Highest Honors until seeing the workout reports.
Outstanding, it’s Chad 💰 in NY and I believe Bikini’s is in the race to ensure a fast pace to set up his late run. The local boy does so want to win a Travers.
Tacitus is the fast, hard luck horse, I would normally run from this type at a short price. They seem to make their own or just find trouble? Now the Belmont was without a doubt the worst ride in Jose Ortiz’s career and the Jim Dandy was a stumble at the break followed by a big run on a dead rail.
If you have seen video of his works w/blinks? He looks like King F’in Kong.
The most likely winner IMHO.
I planned on including and still may include Owendale depending on how the main track is playing.Then again with 90 minutes between dirt races, we have seen tracks change before the big dance? He may have too much to do late and come running to get a piece, not crazy about a top spot here.
Tax simply has too much to do from the parking lot, Gargan already stated they will send as he has no other choice.
Code of Honor should sit a perfect trip or will JV do his usual, abandon the rail for the 4 path on the first turn? Too many extreme ground loss rides for me over the past few years and a very low Tommy for the distance says NO here.
I’m pretty sure I’ll stick with my top 3 in the Travers.
4 x 4 x 2 x 4 x 3 = $384 for a buck
A 2nd ticket singling Elate will be $192
I like the verticals much more than the horizontal in the sequence.
I can also protect my investment shot to beat Shancelot with him on top in verticals in the first leg and come back in pick 4’s & 3’s.
Good luck to all and Happy Travers Day
48 degrees in the Spa as I type this on a crisp August morning.
It must be get away week coming up and a Top Cat appearance is eminent 🐯