Re: Ghostzapper (443 Views)
Date: September 13, 2004 01:44PM
>there ain't no way SL didn't run a significant new top-- time aside, the huge gaps behind those 2 (and 3) would mean ridiculously slow numbers for a lot of horses if you did it that way.<
They would not be ridiculous if the inferior horses ran lower figures because they got bottomed out by the fast middle splits. (something you would ignore)
I do not believe that's the case here as someone else suggested, but you are highlighting an EXACT set of cirumstances in which your figures could theoretically incorporate pace right into the final time.
If inferior horses are used up chasing a fast middle pace and run lower figures, you would wind up adjusting the variant for the whole race to make it faster and give the badly beaten horses full credit for their performance. (building the impact of pace right in)
However, you might then also overrate the winners who would be less impacted by the pace because they are superior horses and could handle a faster pace without (or with less) impact. (by the way, repeatedly doing that would tend to produce slowing improving figures over a very long period of time).
I think SL's figure is a new top on the Beyer scale also (by one point 114 vs 113 if the 114 reported here is accurate).
Beyer also doesn't factor in ground loss which would be important (that's something that someone using Beyer figs should do seperately). I haven't tried to make a Beyer figure for the race. My first guess was about 118.
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