Re: Won the Speed Dual Lost the Race (460 Views)
Date: September 15, 2004 09:13AM
SC,
I loved Silver Charm in the Derby for that reason. That style of handicapping falls into my "visual skills" and "quality of speed caetgory".
I think it helps to use a COMBINATION of visual skills, pace figures and the quality of the speed when evaluating the pace.
Pace figures are complex and prone to occasional errors, but it is just as difficult to see just how fast or slow horses are running relative to what is normal for them. Horses can be dueling without really running all that fast. Others can be running well within themselves and be flying.
Sometimes, viewing the race using various handicapping tools clarifies what really happened.
For ex.
I still do not believe the Woodward pace was extremely fast for true G1 horses even though it looked very fast and they opend up on the field. It was fast, but not earthshattering (expect maybe for a few weaker horses trying to cope with the 2nd quarter)
The 6F pace figure did not come back all that fast. On my figures it was a 126 pace 116 final. 126 is fast, but not killer (unless of course you aren't a Grade I horse). :-)
Post Edited (09-15-04 11:52)