Re: Pace Hoo-Hah (456 Views)
Posted by:
HP (IP Logged)
Date: September 14, 2004 08:24AM
Classhandicapper wrote --
"Closers that maintained their position or tried to improve it during the 45.3 middle race would be running too fast even though they were off the pace. It would impact their time. It would "bottom them out.""
This is EXACTLY the black hole of pace handicapping. The horses you refer to as "closers" are actually not operating as "closers." For whatever reason, the jockey(s) involved have decided to "stalk" a hot pace. After a reasonable first quarter, the front runners picked it up and these guys said "hey, let's go!" No pace figures are going to give an insight on the likelihood of this occurring.
This "on the fly" tactical decision making by the jockeys is a steady factor. In Classhandicapper's example, I would probably have upgraded the closers chances since I may have guessed they would have something to run at. And I would have been looking at the fractions and cursing and saying "you're moving too soon on my 3 you nimrod! Stay on the rail and wait!"
If you could reliably guarantee that all the horses would run in the pace style you assigned them, that would be great, and there ARE races like this. But there are more races where it ISN'T predictable or pace just isn't as big a factor (like Ghostzapper hammering them into the ground). HP