<but there is no evidence (or physiological logic) that would cause "less classy" animals to not handle a pace they themselves were not part of.<

There is. I am probably not explaining it well.

Here's 2 examples in Beyer terms (that's the way I think about pace figures)
This is not science. The numbers do not represent formulas. They simply demonstrate principles.

Example 1:

Assume 2 horses of different ability.

Horse A = usually runs around 118
Horse B = usually runs around 100

The race itself earns 125 - 120 - 116 (first call, second call, and final time) Just a slightly fast pace.

Horse A wires the field.

Horse B was 3 lengths off the lead at the 6F point of the route.

Horse A has 118 potential/ability and thus has only a little trouble handling a 125-120 pace and more or less reproducs his typical final figure.

Horse B has 100 ability and will not cope with a 113 pace for 6 furlongs (3 lengths off a 120) and reproduce anywhere near his 100 final time figure. His figure drops by more that the 118 horse even though he rated off the pace. He was going too fast for "HIM" at that point.

It would be like me rating just behind world class milers for the first half. It's still way too fast for me.

Example 2 using the same 2 horses:

Race Rating: 80 118 115

Horse A gets away with an easy first part, but accelerates very sharply during the middle part of the race to get to his average pace for the 2nd part. His second fraction is much faster than is normal for him. His effort in the middle takes a minor toll even though he had it easy the first part.

Horse B rates just off the pace the first part with no difficulty, but is used much much harder than his natural ability during the second part just trying to maintain his position. He does not cope with that middle fraction nearly as well at the leader because he has much less ability. His figure declines much more that the 118 horse.

This is like me rating last in a field of world class milers during a slow first quarter but then trying keep that exact position during the faster 2nd quarter. I would be a dead man carried off on a stretcher if I tried. Trying to keep up with a fast middle pace of world class milers is way beyond my natural ability. It would kill my ability to reproduce my optimum mile time.

I suspect some are going to say I cannot prove it.

I agree.

I suspect some are going to say give me the formula.

I can't. There isn't one. Horses have unique abilities. Creating very accurate pace figures is virtually impossible. Form fluctuates.

I suspect some will argue that there is nothing forcing the weaker horses to run too fast at times.

I know that. The reality is that sometimes they just do.

There is some logic to this point of view. All you have to do is look at the natural abilities of the horses, the fractions they run, and think about what would happen to human runners in similar circumstances. That's enough to concede it is possible.

I've studied this kind of stuff enough to be almost certain it is true for horses also.
Very many other people have studied this and concluded the same thing.

I don't want to convert anyone. I know it isn't science. In fact, I love the fact that so many others ignore the subtle aspects of pace in their handicapping. They sometimes reach false conclusions about race results, form and figures. Not very often, but often enough.



Post Edited (09-13-04 20:36)