Your Ask The Experts ID
is separate from your
Order Online Account ID
 Race of the Week:  The Suncoast Stakes Tampa Bay Downs, Race 10, February 6, 2021 
Order Online
Buy TG Data
Complete Menu of
TG Data products
Simulcast Books
Customize a Value
Package of Select
TG Data
Sheet Requests
Order The Last Figure for Any Horse
Free Products
Redboard Room
Download and Review previous days' data.
Race of the Week
With detailed comments
ThoroTrack
Email notification when your horse races
Information
Introduction
For newcomers.
Samples and Tutorials
For Horsemen
Consulting services and Graph Racing
Sales Sites
Where to buy TG around the country
Archives
Historical races and handicapping articles
Handicapping
Hall of Fame
Major handicapping contest winners
Home Page
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (467 Views)
Posted by: Fairmount1 (IP Logged)
Date: April 25, 2021 09:05PM

I've put a little thinking into a projected odds attempt. I have some reservations about what will happen and waiting as long as possible although not feeling super confident as in some years. I may give it a shot although not as in tune with the game this year as in the past. And I may say the heck with it as others are all jumping on this attempt on twitter now with plenty of solid guesses out there.

Last year's favorite, Tiz the Law, went off at .70-1 in a 15 horse field. You have to go back to 1976 to find a shorter beaten favorite than that, Foolish Pleasure at .40-1. Only a 15 horse field last year but 3 of the top 4 favorites hit the super and it paid $792.58 for 10 cents. Normally the Derby, as this year, has $1 supers. But last year, for obvious reasons, they had dimes. The super paid $15,851.60 for a $2 increment (792.58 for a dime).

If looking to play supers, a top 3 choice has hit the super every single year since and including 2000. The favorite has hit the super the last 9 years. The average $2 super in that time (last 9 years) has paid $53,416.69 and the median was $39,236.40 (for $2 increments). I know these small samples make these meaningless to a true statistics person. But I pass it along if interested. The $1 minimum for a super, with field of more than 14, and often times 19 or 20 is truly a unique opportunity in the wagering year. My approach despite the favorite's success lately is to toss EQ (likely favorite although I'm still not completely sold on that) and play a 7 horse box with the ones that I prefer for $1 at a cost of $840. I see many easy eliminations, I dislike the favorite at the moment (and don't see that changing), and I see it as a good bet no matter the result as I have strong opinions on the ones I think will be there and a strong opinion against EQ. The TG read will be interesting.

A few notes in the Derby link below on the heaviest beaten favorites of all time if interested although it has not been updated to include Tiz the Law.

[www.kentuckyderby.com]



Subject Written By Posted
Caddo River (570 Views) johnnym 04/25/2021 08:11AM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (657 Views) Kasept 04/25/2021 11:26AM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (609 Views) TGJB 04/25/2021 01:16PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (487 Views) richiebee 04/25/2021 08:15PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (414 Views) confused 04/25/2021 08:29PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (427 Views) richiebee 04/25/2021 10:41PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (388 Views) Molesap 04/26/2021 03:03AM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (339 Views) confused 04/26/2021 07:37AM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (338 Views) ajkreider 04/26/2021 10:46AM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (329 Views) confused 04/26/2021 11:38AM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (340 Views) richiebee 04/26/2021 03:08PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (467 Views) Fairmount1 04/25/2021 09:05PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (393 Views) Roman 04/26/2021 12:11AM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (379 Views) bluechip21 04/26/2021 06:10AM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (386 Views) johnnym 04/26/2021 07:01AM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (375 Views) Chas04 04/26/2021 07:39AM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (296 Views) boardedup 04/26/2021 06:21PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (299 Views) statuette 04/26/2021 06:36PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (439 Views) mjellish 04/26/2021 06:40PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (310 Views) bluechip21 04/26/2021 07:45PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (274 Views) hellersorr 04/26/2021 09:37PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (275 Views) johnnym 04/26/2021 09:42PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (328 Views) richiebee 04/26/2021 09:47PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (324 Views) richiebee 04/26/2021 10:23PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (331 Views) confused 04/26/2021 08:06PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (328 Views) jbelfior 04/26/2021 08:52PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (155 Views) Beginner 05/01/2021 08:06PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (339 Views) Fairmount1 04/26/2021 10:22PM
Re: Mattress Mac (351 Views) BitPlayer 04/27/2021 12:35AM
Re: Mattress Mac (303 Views) boardedup 04/27/2021 07:12AM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (657 Views) TGJB 04/25/2021 01:19PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (513 Views) Molesap 04/25/2021 02:48PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (481 Views) Molesap 04/25/2021 03:07PM
Re: Caddo River (453 Views) jm2324 04/25/2021 01:38PM


Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.
This forum powered by Phorum.

Thoro-Graph 180 Varick Street New York, NY 10014 ---- Click here for the Ask The Experts Archives.