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 Race of the Week:  2021 Oaks Derby Days Final Figures Churchill Downs 30 April-1 May 2021 
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Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (428 Views)
Posted by: richiebee (IP Logged)
Date: April 25, 2021 10:41PM

Confused

The proper question would be: Why is it my opinion that KA
will bounce?

If JB could open a wagering pool restricted to people who purchased data for
that day, there would be a surprising amount of value. Races are sometimes won
by runners who are not among the fastest, and we all look at data differently.
What was the question?

Bouncing KA:

This is TG board so lets look at TG data. I have already let half the cat out
of the bag regarding KA's Thoro-pattern. I will spill it entirely, hoping not
to lose lifetime free admission to TG Spa seminars or lifetime waived entry
fees to the TG (Senior?) Open.

In a small sample (44), one quarter of the runners showing the same pattern as
KA have produced a top in their next race. How large a top? Big enough to win?
The other Thoro-pattern possibilities show that the chances of a pair (not good
enough to win, my opinion) or worse=75%.

There is a TG notation next to his TG # for Florida Derby that I would like to
investigate. I was fast asleep while the race was being run and have not seen a
replay, maybe tonight or tomorrow

Non-Thorographically, the trainer of KA has a Derby record of 2 for 43. I do
not want to hold a lot of TAP's early Derby misfires against him, but it is
probably accurate to say that TAP has saddled more Derby bounces than any
trainer in history.

One more point is that my projected Belmont Stakes winner, Dynamic One, also
trained by TAP, is almost as fast as KA on the TGs and will be a much larger
price.

This will be KA's second race off Lasix. The only log I will throw on that fire
is to say (opinion) there is nowhere near enough data for me or anyone else to
determine whether regression (if any) will come first or second race OFF?

If you could not tell from NONSCIENCE, I think the two GP preps beat a horse
up. Orb and Always Dreaming were Derby winners who never won again; Max
Security's hooves were not touching the ground. Nyquist won both Florida and
Kentucky Derbies, but the Florida Derby was his only prep race at GP.

AJKreider expressed it differently, but I agree: If I go four deep in the Derby
on my horizontal, KA not one of the four. If I go as deep as six, he is
probably one of the six.

Confession Confusion: The whole GP multiple prep/NONSCIENCE thing popped in my
head because of Greatest Honour, who must have had enough Derby qualifying
points after winning the Fountain of Youth and Holy Bull that he did not need
to run in Florida Derby in order to be eligible to run in Kentucky Derby.
Bull/Fountain/Florida Derby/Kentucky Derby/No Lasix rather ambitious, would
love to have known Shug's take on this...



Subject Written By Posted
Caddo River (578 Views) johnnym 04/25/2021 08:11AM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (660 Views) Kasept 04/25/2021 11:26AM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (611 Views) TGJB 04/25/2021 01:16PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (487 Views) richiebee 04/25/2021 08:15PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (416 Views) confused 04/25/2021 08:29PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (428 Views) richiebee 04/25/2021 10:41PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (397 Views) Molesap 04/26/2021 03:03AM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (347 Views) confused 04/26/2021 07:37AM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (342 Views) ajkreider 04/26/2021 10:46AM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (330 Views) confused 04/26/2021 11:38AM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (344 Views) richiebee 04/26/2021 03:08PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (478 Views) Fairmount1 04/25/2021 09:05PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (399 Views) Roman 04/26/2021 12:11AM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (382 Views) bluechip21 04/26/2021 06:10AM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (386 Views) johnnym 04/26/2021 07:01AM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (378 Views) Chas04 04/26/2021 07:39AM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (297 Views) boardedup 04/26/2021 06:21PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (305 Views) statuette 04/26/2021 06:36PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (441 Views) mjellish 04/26/2021 06:40PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (314 Views) bluechip21 04/26/2021 07:45PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (274 Views) hellersorr 04/26/2021 09:37PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (279 Views) johnnym 04/26/2021 09:42PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (332 Views) richiebee 04/26/2021 09:47PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (325 Views) richiebee 04/26/2021 10:23PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (334 Views) confused 04/26/2021 08:06PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (332 Views) jbelfior 04/26/2021 08:52PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (167 Views) Beginner 05/01/2021 08:06PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (348 Views) Fairmount1 04/26/2021 10:22PM
Re: Mattress Mac (354 Views) BitPlayer 04/27/2021 12:35AM
Re: Mattress Mac (307 Views) boardedup 04/27/2021 07:12AM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (662 Views) TGJB 04/25/2021 01:19PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (515 Views) Molesap 04/25/2021 02:48PM
Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (484 Views) Molesap 04/25/2021 03:07PM
Re: Caddo River (455 Views) jm2324 04/25/2021 01:38PM


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