Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (486 Views)
Posted by: richiebee
Date: April 25, 2021 08:15PM
Clean and up to date, only lacking a set of projected odds from the board's
I've dabbled in NONSCIENCE, now I will explore HISTORY (for purposes of both,
Maximum Security was 2019 Derby winner). Since 2013 (current point system), the
Derby winner was in the Top 5 point leaders five of seven years. Both Always
Dreaming and Maximum Security were seventh on points list.
In the last seven years, the Kentucky Derby was won by Florida Derby
winner four times, Santa Anita Derby winner twice and the
Arkansas Derby winner once.
Given recent HISTORY, consider the following questions: (1) Is picking Derby
WINNER really that much of a puzzle? (2) Will there ever be a Giacomo/Mine That
Bird type Derby upset under the current points system? (3) How screwed am I
(based off above) in that I think Known Agenda bounces right out of the
[Maybe the points system could be tweaked so that winners of non pointed races
could be preferred over horses who have not won as a 3YO? Hypothetical: A Cal
bred or NY bred 3YO gets on a roll, winning a couple of state bred stakes
in nice fashion....would rather see a horse like this have an opportunity to go
to Derby than a horse who accumulated prep points but has not won as a 3YO.
Hypothetical also works subbing "filly" for "state bred".]