Re: Malibu Stakes (551 Views)
Posted by: Socalman3
Date: December 24, 2021 03:35PM
> Thanks for the sheets, Jerry. Much appreciated.
> Looks like Slim Pickens in the Malibu. Probably
> best to pass, but ...
> The only potential value I see comes from the two
> horses that last raced at Mahoning Valley.
> TIMELESS BOUNTY looks like he's going to bounce to
> the moon, but you never know. That last race is
> buried and has to be worth something. What's it
> worth? I landed on 12/1. Maybe 15/1.
> BABY YODA has the big number three back and is
> coming off a tough trip. He may rebound and could
> offer value if the price drifts up off the two
> poor efforts. The ML is accurate on this one at
> Merry Christmas.
Is Baby Yoda the ultimate horse for a course? He has 6 races, 2 at the SPA and 4 elsewhere. In ALL 4 elsewhere races, this horse has had issues at the start (at least one trouble designation if not more). His only meaningful forward moves have been the two races at the SPA. His worst race at the SPA is significantly better than his best race anywhere else. His only win that was not at the SPA, was against 10k maiden claimers (prices, OK, i.e. that is not a typo).
It seems to me that this horse needs to run at Saratoga or places like Saratoga (Oaklawn, Keeneland). Beauty of running this horse at Oaklawn is I think he gets lasix in the stakes races (his two Saratoga races were lasix races). In the Malibu, he does not get Lasix, and he is running against monsters with whom he cannot afford any antics at the start. My take on this horse is that he will probably disappoint on Sunday, but hopefully the connections will not lose faith and will send him to Oaklawn and his form may be concealed enough by then that a good price can be had when he is spotted correctly.
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