Re: Malibu Stakes (343 Views)
Posted by: Tavasco
Date: December 25, 2021 11:24PM
> What would we saying about Baby Yoda's Saratoga
> number if it wasn't Mott?
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.
Your question sure does give me pause. My first thought was to consider the ownership before I even realized Mott was the current trainer. IMO, Wachtel can occasionally be optimistic in the placement of their stakes horses and or young developing horses. I figured it was a function of a bad figure here or there and consequent pattern distortion.
Generally, the owners' are astute with more experienced horses where they have a bigger data set to rely on. Isn't Mott a new addition to the owner's team? It Beg's the question who is calling the shots? We don't expect Mott to misplace entries very often, certainly not away from New York.
Consequently, I read the entry of Baby Yoda as a positive. I don't think the Owners nor the Trainer would risk expense money without confidence in a profit.
I'll toss Baby Yoda's last two races. In the Voburg he was just in too deep and I figured him to regress. At Mahoning Valley, too many horses, too crowded, and an unfamiliar place didn't help the colt. Unable to control the race and then trouble in the crowd.
Now, SoCal. Field size probably won't cause any problem so I think we can see him get back to his best. Even that is somewhat problematic. The competition; Flightline obviously presents a MAJOR problem. But. one doesn't have to win to make a profit. With a $300K purse, I'd want to be confident of 2nd or third to ship (unless there is some long game I'm unaware of?)
So it seems, can one expect to beat Dr. Schivel (who is fast and consistent) and A Baffert that is who knows how good? plus a couple of others that are not Tomato Cans
Bottom Line - The connections may know something that gives them a positive financial expectation but @ 6/1 early line I'll be damned if I can see anything for the Bettor? C/B Flightline goes to 1/5 and Baby Yoda to 20/1. The favorite goes wrong and BY gets into a crazy exacta or trifecta payoff. Yeah, I rarely buy Powerball tickets rarely and not for any more than $4.
Edit - I did not realize Baby Yoda's best was as fast as it evidently is. So obviously a repeat of his top makes him a contender. But I won't be on him.
Edit #2 - Conclusion - Bill Mott knows what he's doing. The owners know what they are doing by hiring Bill Mott. [b][/b]
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