Your Ask The Experts ID
is separate from your
Order Online Account ID
 Race of the Week:  2024 Breeders' Cup Days Final Figures Del Mar 1-2 November 2024 
Order Online
Buy TG Data
Complete Menu of
TG Data products
Simulcast Books
Customize a Value
Package of Select
TG Data
Sheet Requests
Order The Last Figure for Any Horse
Free Products
Redboard Room
Download and Review previous days' data.
Race of the Week
With detailed comments
ThoroTrack
Email notification when your horse races
Information
Introduction
For newcomers.
Samples and Tutorials
For Horsemen
Consulting services and Graph Racing
Sales Sites
Where to buy TG around the country
Archives
Historical races and handicapping articles
Handicapping
Hall of Fame
Major handicapping contest winners
Home Page
Re: Malibu Stakes (615 Views)
Posted by: Tavasco (IP Logged)
Date: December 25, 2021 11:24PM

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> What would we saying about Baby Yoda's Saratoga
> number if it wasn't Mott?
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.

Your question sure does give me pause. My first thought was to consider the ownership before I even realized Mott was the current trainer. IMO, Wachtel can occasionally be optimistic in the placement of their stakes horses and or young developing horses. I figured it was a function of a bad figure here or there and consequent pattern distortion.

Generally, the owners' are astute with more experienced horses where they have a bigger data set to rely on. Isn't Mott a new addition to the owner's team? It Beg's the question who is calling the shots? We don't expect Mott to misplace entries very often, certainly not away from New York.

Consequently, I read the entry of Baby Yoda as a positive. I don't think the Owners nor the Trainer would risk expense money without confidence in a profit.

I'll toss Baby Yoda's last two races. In the Voburg he was just in too deep and I figured him to regress. At Mahoning Valley, too many horses, too crowded, and an unfamiliar place didn't help the colt. Unable to control the race and then trouble in the crowd.

Now, SoCal. Field size probably won't cause any problem so I think we can see him get back to his best. Even that is somewhat problematic. The competition; Flightline obviously presents a MAJOR problem. But. one doesn't have to win to make a profit. With a $300K purse, I'd want to be confident of 2nd or third to ship (unless there is some long game I'm unaware of?)

So it seems, can one expect to beat Dr. Schivel (who is fast and consistent) and A Baffert that is who knows how good? plus a couple of others that are not Tomato Cans

Bottom Line - The connections may know something that gives them a positive financial expectation but @ 6/1 early line I'll be damned if I can see anything for the Bettor? C/B Flightline goes to 1/5 and Baby Yoda to 20/1. The favorite goes wrong and BY gets into a crazy exacta or trifecta payoff. Yeah, I rarely buy Powerball tickets rarely and not for any more than $4.


[hr]
[b][color=#FF0000]Edit - I did not realize Baby Yoda's best was as fast as it evidently is. So obviously a repeat of his top makes him a contender. But I won't be on him.[/color][/b]


[hr]
[color=#3300FF][b]Edit #2 - Conclusion - Bill Mott knows what he's doing. The owners know what they are doing by hiring Bill Mott.[/b] [b][/b][/color]



Subject Written By Posted
Malibu Stakes (927 Views) prist 12/24/2021 11:04AM
Re: Malibu Stakes (722 Views) Socalman3 12/24/2021 03:35PM
Re: Malibu Stakes (652 Views) jbelfior 12/25/2021 12:00PM
Re: Malibu Stakes (615 Views) Tavasco 12/25/2021 11:24PM
Re: Malibu Stakes (599 Views) johnnym 12/26/2021 07:45AM
Re: Malibu Stakes - Clock (576 Views) Tavasco 12/27/2021 08:34AM
Re: Malibu Stakes - Clock (564 Views) prist 12/27/2021 09:20AM
Re: Malibu Stakes - Clock (550 Views) prist 12/27/2021 11:58AM
Re: Malibu Stakes - Vic Stauffer on Twitter (727 Views) BitPlayer 12/26/2021 09:46AM
Re: Malibu Stakes - Vic Stauffer on Twitter (644 Views) jbelfior 12/26/2021 07:44PM
GP/SA Analysis Today (649 Views) P-Dub 12/26/2021 07:52PM


Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.
This forum powered by Phorum.

Thoro-Graph 180 Varick Street New York, NY 10014 ---- Click here for the Ask The Experts Archives.