Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I have ZERO inside information. I just have a
> strong hunch this Filly is gonna fire against a
> very competitive field.


Filly definitely looks strong and poised to benefit from the weight and ground advantages which should make her extremely tough.

HOWEVER, Fierceness looks like another planet to me -- his 4 wins speak for themselves and no horse in this race can touch that horse.

His only off efforts were his three losses and those are easily explainable as a young very inexperienced horse encountering certain types of adversity for a first time (even though it happened three times - these were genuinely quirky situations). Horses of this quality eventually learn from these experiences and become quite consistent (the great ones threw in a few early career clunkers before their greatness shone; horses that are in and outer types never really attain a level like this).

I know a lot people will say that some horses just make their own trouble and you have to figure that in, but this horse doesn't behave the way a horse that usually makes its own trouble behaves (a concern I have with Sierra Leone). This horse seems like an honest innocent victim of certain circumstances.

While you might say he could run into contested pace issues on the front end, you could have said that for the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year and you would have missed out on a $35 horse. Except for that race, this horse has been seriously backed for his entire career (e.g. KY Derby favorite) and has generally proven the bettors correct. In this race, this horse is not going to be favored yet he is on a different level than all the other horses. This may well be the last time this horse will not be the favorite.

I really think you can buy this race with just the two of them - the filly and Fierceness. If you want to look for value in the vertical - perhaps a Corporate Power or Unmatched Wisdom could fill out the deeper exotics. I think that both Sierra Leone and Dornoch have questions which make it unlikely for them to reach the level that the Filly and Fierceness will on this day and could open up for some value below.

Unfortunately, I agree with the commentators on here that the HAJ is wide open and requires a spread, so only going two deep here helps pay for that spread. Definitely think it is better to go (8) x (2) rather than (4) x (4) between the two races even though the cost is the same.