jerry Wrote:
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> Fierceness has followed both of his prior negative
> numbers with an X. We’ll see but this horse has
> a history of quitting when headed. Not sure he
> wants 1 1/4 mile either.
>
> I’m going with Sierra Leone. Unmatched Wisdom
> can keep Anna honest through the first half mile.
> That could set it up for Chad’s other horse.


His first negative number was winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile and the race following was a three year old debut he obviously wasn't cranked up for (who is going to pair up the winning Juvenile figure on Feb 3 of the three year old year?). I have to think it is not unusual for Juvenile winners to go backwards in their 3 yo debut off the winning Juvenile figure. On top of that, he had a ton of trouble, and even with all that, he ran a figure that the vast majority of 3yo colts would covet on Feb 3. He was only beaten by a colt that was able to wire the field with very easy fractions and a colt that just won the Dwyer by 7.5 lengths.....I would be cautious penalizing him today on the basis of that effort.

The next negative figure was a new top -3.25 in March. The bounce was in the Derby where he had trouble at the start, rushed into contention into a fierce duel, the horse clearly X'ed with multiple excuses/explanations for it.

The figure to look at is his Jim Dandy. It was a negative 1 in late July. That figure is not nearly the isolated jump up figures you are comparing it to. It was not only not a new top, it was not even his secondary top. That negative figure is arguably just where the horse is now.

There are ways this horse could X -- e.g.crazy duel/trouble -- but I dont think it is reasonable to say because he previously bounced off negative numbers - that analysis looks a little myopic to me. If he is a negative 1 horse now, then he should usually run his race. It is not crazy in the context of his career to say in late august of his 3yo year, he is a horse that is at the minus 1 level.

As to quitting when headed, that may be myopic too. He has quit twice -- both with pretty good excuses and it was not a case here he got headed in the last furlong and couldn't hold on. Both times he quit, he struggled to get the lead and couldn't even get second and quit pretty early. In two of his four wins, he did not have the lead and needed to pass a horse to take the lead. We will see if a horse gets near him in the last furlong - but when I watch the Jim Dandy replay, it looks to me like he actually pulled away from Sierra Leone in the last furlong - not only did he hold on but he re-rallied against a strong closer that had headed him. That race was 9 furlongs - it didnt look to me like the extra furlong was going to help Sierra Leone catch him. Watching the replay of the mile and an eighth Jim Dandy does not give me confidence that Sierra Leone should be able to turn the tables on him at 10 furlongs tomorrow.

Look, this is horse racing, he could just wake up on the wrong side of the bed - he could have trouble or get stuck in a crazy duel, but this horse is a horse at a whole different level than the rest of this field. If he fails, it is not going to be because he reacts to every negative figure or that he cant withstand a closer when headed. This horse has been heavily bet most of his career and this is a rare case where you can get the clearly best horse and he wont even be favored and he will be longer odds than you will be able to get him most of the time. My biggest problem is that the filly is getting 5 lbs and will not give up any ground and unfortunately Johnny Velazquez is allergic to the rail, so this horse needs to run a big figure to beat the filly - but absent unusual circumstances, the two of them should be fairly clear of the rest of this field.