Re: ROCKPORT HARBOR (429 Views)
Date: November 28, 2004 06:03PM
>some guys gave lion tamer a huge new top in his previous race. i guess that frankel horse that beat him, mass media, is a real freak. you had to assume that LT really did improve that much and the last was not a fluke.<
Not sure whose figures you are referring to, but IMO yesterday's win for Lion Tamer had little or nothing to do with him running a new top in this race or his last race.
People that believe that pace doesn't mean much might assign him a new top for yesterday's race in order to fit everyone else's figures into place. However, without even trying to make figures for yesterday I am fairly certain that would be a misunderstanding of the result.
No matter what figure makers give him for yesterday's Cigar (depending on methodology), the primary reason he won is that all the contenders that looked a little faster or more likely to improve used themselves hard early and thus ran slower than they would have under an average pace scenario. This gave him an advatage.
IMO, it couldn't be clearer going in that there was some potential for a duel setting it up for a closer. IMO, the race development (visually and fractions) and results are too obvious to think that pace wasn't a factor in the outcome.
Post Edited (11-28-04 18:12)