Michael,

I guess I am not being clear because we seem to be miscommunicating.

1. I do not think his race prior to the Cigar was fast enough to beat Pico Central on his best day. Jerry doesn't think so. Beyer doesn't think so. Logic Dictates doesn't think so. Pacefigures doesn't think so. My own analysis suggests that all those guys are right. So if someone has that race faster, I believe it was in error despite the result.

2. I think that horses like Purge and Badge of Silver (who were similarly fast and IMO more likely to move forward) would/should be given an edge under typcial circumstances because their style lends itself to losing less ground. LT is a closer.

3. I thought there was decent probability of fast pace yesterday that could/would neutralize the speed figure advantages of some of those better horses. (at least the secondary speeds)

4. I think the pace and development of the race enabled LT to win even though IMHO he was not the best horse. IMO under honest pace circumstances, BOS would have won, Pico Central would have finished second, and LT would have been 3rd.

5. I do not know what speed figure Jerry, Rags, Beyer, Logic, or Pacefigures will give LT for that performance. What I do know is that some of them tend to look at pace when interpreting results and some do not. So it is possible we will see very different figures from them depending on personal beliefs. No matter what figures they assign, IMO he was still 3rd best. This is an example of the kind of thing I talk about when I say I use pace to analyze results and figure out who really ran best.

6. If I were interpreting this single result I would assign LT a figure similar to his last race. I would give everyone else a figure slower than they have been running because their participation in the duel hurt them or because getting outrun by faster speed horses hurt them.

7. I don't see LT winning as vindication for someone who had his last race as faster than PICO Central. If anything, if he was really faster than them he would have won off by 5 or more lengths because he had everything his own way. IMO, the rest of them ran slower final times because they were used so hard early. He should have killed them if he was really faster.

I don't think the figures that come out of this race will vindicate anyone (including me) because everyone has their own opinion about how to interpret results and make figures.

IMHO, this result was fairly easy to understand after the race because it didn't develop much differently than I thought was possible before the race. I thought the pace would be fast and Pico Central would put away the other speeds away and hold off Lion Tamer. Pico was not as sharp as I thought. He wasn't nearly as good as BOS.