I do not believe LT had shown enough in his prior races to win yesterday's race assuming an honest pace. He had shown enough ability to make his presence felt assuming a duel on the front end though. I wasn't assuming an honest pace and was correct. If some other figure maker had his last race as fast as Pico Central's best races I believe those figures are not to be taken seriously (Rags?). I know this is a subjective matter (who are you going to believe), but you'd have a tough time convincing me otherwise. Sometimes people have the right horse for the wrong reason.

I haven't tried to analyze the figures for yesterday's race(s) yet, but IMO, he would NOT have beaten Pico Central "if" that one ran his "typical race" and was not "used so hard" early.

IMO he certainly wouldn't have beaten Badge of Silver. IMO, BOS ran the best race by far. He pressed that fast pace 3 wide and didn't get beaten badly at all. That's a dreadful trip as you are dueling, losing ground, and working even harder than the other duelers to stay even with them because you are wide. If Frankel can hold him together (big if), that horse is going to be an excellent sprint/miler.

If LT did run a new top yesterday, he still benefitted from the duel because IMO he was still 3rd best in that field. Closers always look good picking up duelers as the fractions begin to slow. I'm not trying to take anything away from his performance, it just looks better than it was.



Post Edited (11-28-04 19:07)