TGJB,

>What we do here is try to measure ability, not accomplishment-- we are looking for overlays both in buying and betting. <

I agree that that should be the goal.

It's just that some of us think that running fast against weaker competition is not as good as running fast against excellent competition. We like to see some non-speed figure verification of quality.

IMO, the best ways to verify 3YO quality are to see how easily lightly raced allowance horses move up to the top of the class after impressive and fast wins, how dominant the better 3YO horses are and how fast they run when they take an easy race against a much weaker group, and how they all do against older horses.

Some of the better 3YOs actually still have conditions well into the year.

By this standard, even if a member or two of a crop has been running fast, that does not mean they are as good as horses earning similar figures in races loaded with average multiple grade I winning older horses that are sharp.

No one from this crop has progressed much from the spring or developed late. Perhaps they were OK for springtime 3YOs, but they weren't that good. Their efforts against older horses have demonstrated that. No one that I know of ran real well against older horses despite the fact that some of them had contending speed figures or were coming off sharp races against their own kind. (Cliff's edge had a 2nd against second string older horses at best) It's just an observation about what Smarty might have been beating in the spring.



Post Edited (11-29-04 15:11)