Re: California Beyers (440 Views)
Date: March 04, 2005 05:33PM
TGJB,
I understand the technique you are suggesting, but I don't have the database required to do a detailed study like that. Andy supposedly does though and I would be surprised if he doesn't spot check CA and NY.
I've done an enormous amount of work over the years on the average winning figure for stakes races by grade, age, sex, and time of year - using Beyer figures (PARs).
Typically, there are weak divisions and sections of the country from time to time, but the figures have been remarkably consistent over the long haul. The average figure for stakes (especially high level older horses) tend to hover around the PAR.
With virtually every stakes division in CA (on dirt) currently running figures below PAR, that strongly suggests that these are all below average horses.
If these figures are also inflated relative to some other tracks around the country, that would certainly mean that this is the most dreadful group of CA stakes horses - covering multiple divisions - we've seen in decades (on a relative basis).
I can't believe that is true. They are weak, but they aren't dreadful. I think it is far more likely he screwed up a few days or figures in CA or that some of his figures from second tier tracks are too low. But CA almost cannot be inflated.