Re: California Beyers (441 Views)
Date: March 05, 2005 06:45PM
Michael,
>what to do with my old favorite imperialism here. the race sets up for him perfectly, but the beat last out was a killer. if i didn't cash there at 7-1 or so, i probably shouldn't be betting him today.<
I'm of the opinion that the only things that can beat St. Liam are 10F or a rough trip on the front end from the outside (pace and ground loss). Maybe a combination of both.
I expect him to fire another good race.
If he does fire a big one, it will take a much improved performance by someone to beat him. St Liam's ability is somewhat hidden because not only is he pretty darn fast, he earned some of those figures pressing very demanding paces against better horses than these. IMO, some of his races are better than the speed figures indicate.
I am also of the opinion that the horses most likely to improve are the ones that are recently turned 4YOs and perhaps also Lundy's Liability because he is very lightly raced and was clearly prepped for this.
However, among that second tier, when I balance their recent form vs. the probability of improving vs. the probability of getting a good trip I think it is very wide open and confusing.
The only real opinion I have is that Truly a Judge might be vulnerable for the place spot because he faces "potential" pressure on the front end from a superior horse like St Liam and then must negotiate 10F after that. That insight is worthless in this case though because it's not like Truly a Judge is going to be the second choice where I could throw hin out of the exacta. His odds will be longer. I see no value based on what I believe the odds will be. That makes this race a non event for me other my sporting interest.
Maybe they'll bet it in a surprising way and I'll change my mind.
Post Edited (03-05-05 18:47)