Re: California Beyers (442 Views)
Date: March 04, 2005 06:54PM
I haven't looked at any turf figures for CA.
I think we agree that that there are "some" inflated CA figures (Roman Ruler/Declan for sure).
Some of the Turfway Park figures look low.
I haven't examined everything.
However, something like RHT and Imperialism running a 109 is not impossible. That's actually a weak Beyer figure for a Grade I older horse. They usually run around a 115. It's also pretty much in line with any expected improvement from their 3YO form from last year. Another Beyer guy (different source) has an almost identical number for that race. If it's off, it's not by much.
Beyer has the other older horses in CA running figures the low 100s. That's the PAR for classified allowance and listed stakes horses. If those figures are also inflated then the very best older horses in CA would have trouble with the typical top inner dirt track horse in NY. That can't be right.
You may be right about some of his circuits being out of sync, but CA can't be inflated in general. You would have to be more familiar with his scale and the PARs to appreciate what I mean. It's the other way around. Other circuits are too low.
Post Edited (03-04-05 19:20)