Big you went way out on a limb and grabbed the horse everyone says is the fastest figure earner. If the Derby was today Bellamy would be about 5-2. You can have him at that.

I believe the fractions were legitimate but not fast on that track. I dont think you can compare the Wood to the 10 mark fourth and I dont think the 10th race horses were much quality and believe they they ran about a 10 on Tgraph. If they ran 10's I dont think Survivalist was much better. I know for a fact that every other horse in the Wood ran poorly with the possible exception of Survivalist. I also know the only time Bellmany met significant speed competition he caved. I'm not saying the cave is gonna happen in the Derby, but he will certainly be tested in a manner he was not tested in the Wood.

Its not gonna look right on TGraphs pattern reconciliation to give Survivalist an 8, I understand that, but if Survivalist ran an 8 that means Bellamy ran closer to a 0. (Similar to his previous race). I think thats where he was. I could be wrong and Bellamy could still lose the Derby. Also, I could be right and Bellamy could win it, because a zero still puts him in the hunt. A bet on Bellamy is a decent wager, but is it a bet on a monster? :)

CtC