The Wood was fast. TGraph said it was fast. Its fast. Was it exactly as fast as they say? I have serious reservations because I'm convinced the horse used to make the figure was Survivalist and I'm also convinved he is completely isolated for consistency on the race. There is no redundancy. There is no second horse to corroborrate the effort with. Without a second horse to reconcile the race you can say Survivalist ran whatever you want can't you? Some will say if you give Survivalist an 8 or 9 the others ran too abysmally to believe. I understand that, but I think they did. I think they all fell off the end of the earth. That is my opinion, I'm cognizant the figure makers believe otherwise. I discount front end unchallenged performance figures unless I believe the circumstances can be repeated in the race under consideration. I don't think Bellamy has exceptionally quick pace numbers. I guess we'll see won't we?

I'm also convinved that Survivalist is not as impeccably bred for distance as everyone else seems to think. Danzig rarely has filled me with optimism, (especially in his twilight years), and I've never been high on nicks to Mr. Prospector mares and see no reason why this mare should fill one with enthusiasm. Shes not Con Game. Shug wasn't Derby high on this horse and Survivalist ran like a sloth in the beginning and end of the race. A pair off the Gotham? With all due respect, how?

The key to me was the race after the Wood. The New York Bred Slow Rats. If They scored down around the 4-5 mark I'd more or less say everyone got Bellamy Road's Wood correct. I don't think they did however. I think they ran about a 10. I could be wrong. I don't know what TGraph gave them and dont' make my own numbers any longer and never made them outside of Florida anyway. But I do know Aqueduct fairly well and I'm not inclined to believe the efforts in the 8th and 9th were knockout punches. They were good, they werent zingers, but that may even be good for the winners because I'm less inclined to believe significant tops were run, so in my opinion bounces are less likely.

The figure makers are in a precarious position in my opinion. They've calculated performance figs for a distance race upon a single race and a highly suspect key animal in that race. There is no second race to turn to unless you variant with the 10 furlong fourth. Good Luck. Sweet Dreams are made of this.

As far as my Derby choice, I'm afraid you will not get it until 10 seconds before off. It will be so close to off time, if I'm fortunate enough to win for the fourth consecutive year, folks will accuse me of Past Posting. What you gonna do? :)

CtC