Actually the discussion of horses liked has been kept to a minimum. We have a pretty good idea where the horses are going to break from now, but there could be a wrinkle or two thrown in at the last minute. We'll know in about 90 minutes.

Anyone can pick a Kentucky Derby favorite and sometimes you can even win with one. If Andy Beyer had been on favorites since 1973 he'd of won quite a few Kentucky Derbies. Whether he'd have a positive R.O.I. or not is debateable. He's on the favorite this year, well, maybe until that last article in the online DRF anyway. That one was hard to digest.

Whats been discussed is the reliability of the figures this year in consideration of some factually challenging races. Theres been results in key prep races to think that the horses behind the winners may have fallen off form. Before handicappers can even begin to decide where horses are going they have to be reasonably certain they know where they've been. Bluegrass day there is a theorized bias to factor. In regard to that bias, issues exist pertaining to how High Limit performed as compared to his past efforts. Theres a point where High Limits head dips late stretch and where momentum appears to be more quickly dissipated and where Bandini signifcantly increases his lead. Sun King, racing wide throughout and who languished in that race is seen galloping with Bandini post wire. High Limit is out of view. What should handicappers make of that all that, the various factors considered?

Then theres the Wood. Obviously an impressive winner. How fast was that track by that race however? The fastest it has ever been? Even Beyer said it was extremely fast. What if thats an understatement? At this point with the post race knowledge gained, does anyone really think the other horses in the Wood came close to pairing their previous efforts? If someone does state the case for it. Most crashed and burned. Its merely a question of survivors or how bad they X'd. For some X's are hard to figure. Personally, I have no way to really calculate an X.

They are both questionable races, but theres enough evidence to believe the Bluegrass is more ascertainable than the Wood.

And that doesnt even address the race Derby Day.