I have formulated a betting strategy based on the following points I have deluded myself into believing. Feel free to throw poo on it.


- Bandini is a must toss at the expected low price; they cashed (literally, at the windows) in the Bluegrass, now it's derby fever; big top (I have faith in the TG #) with little foundation, only 3 weeks off

- Must use Bellamy Road for obvious reasons; too short a price to key and low fun factor being the big chalk and Kinsman

- Must use to a lesser extent Afleet Alex, Greeley's Galaxy, & High Limit; AA has the nice neg # AND the foundation but also Rose, a relatively short price, and a decent chance at a wide or troubled trip; GG & HL could either run well and odds will be fair (or maybe not for HL, we'll see! toss at < 10-1, win saver at > 20-1)

- In tris & supers must use Sun King, Noble Causeway, & Wilko in 3 & 4 slots

- The key in all exotics is High Fly; I have no good reasons not to expect him to either pair up or move slightly forward off his last, considering 5 weeks off and the strong foundation; Based on his PROVEN effective stalking style he projects to have a good trip; he might not be as fast as some of these but he's been the most consistent this year; the proven faster ones look all too shaky to key on or too short, HF just needs to run his race (probable) and has a decent chance at a top 3 finish unless 3 of the big figure ones pair up (not probable)

- Since Bellamy Road can still bounce and trounce (trademark) he will be used heavier in tris and keyed on top in the super, and also on top in a saver exacta with HF; the super is more of a chalk saver, too many combos using so many in here


Wagers will look like this:


Tri;

HF
BR(x2),AA,GG,HL
BR,AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W

BR(x4),AA,GG,HL
HF
BR,AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W

BR(x4),AA,GG,HL
BR,AA,GG,HL
HF


Super;

BR
HF
AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W
AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W

BR
AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W
HF
AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W


Ex;

HF
BR(x5),AA(x3),GG,HL,SK,NC,W

BR(x10),AA(x3),GG,HL,SK,NC,W
HF


Win;
HF(x40) at > 10-1
HL(x10) at > 20-1
GG(x5) at > 20-1