Joe,

Naturally it's going to depend on the post time odds, but right now I am leaning towards Bandini, High Fly, and Greely's Galaxy based on what I "think" the odds will be.

I don't buy the straight up stats on bounces for big figures, new tops coming in, etc... I think each horse has to analyzed individually.

I sort of think that BR ran the best race last time out. However, between having quality speed inside of him, 10F, the potential for lesser performance than that, and the fact that that last race was against garbage cans on a track that certainly wasn't hostile to speed, I wan't to play against him as the favorite (assuming he is). Naturally, he has a big shot if he fires close to his last. I just see a lot of ways for him not to.

To me, Bandini's figure is a key. I think the pace was a bit fast and impacted several of the horses. On paper, I also totally agree with JB that it doesn't make sense that all the horses that finished well behind him ran poorly/slowly. They are mostly a very consistent group of lightly raced improving 3YOs. So no matter how you get there (numerically or subjectively, with pace or without), I think Bandini's BG was probably a high quality peformance. I love Pletcher and I think he will get another big race out of him.

I think High Fly's Florida Derby was better than it looks. He raced close to a fast pace and finished well enough. I think he is better than most people give him credit for. I think he has a similar chance to Afleet Alex and Greely's Galaxy.

I more or less make Afleet Alex and Greely's Galaxy similar.

AA has the much better overall record but he has never looked like a 10F horse to me. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm discounting his chances a little based on that. His last race was a slow pace that turned into a sprint home and so was his Champagne. I'd be more confident if I had seen him cope with a tough pace at a route and finish well at a distance.

GG has just that one huge figure and only 4 starts. Not sure what to expect, but it was a fast race last out. Both AA and GG killed similar "2nd string" fields by similar amounts.

I'm not sure what to make of Sun King. If he wins it won't be with my money, but it's not impossible.

After that I think horses like Wilko, Noble Causway, Giacomo and other big long shot closers are very live to get a piece of the super or triple if the pace is fast enough to take out a few of the speeds and/or a couple of others don't want 10F.

I haven't actually created an odds line yet and I might still change my mind a little, but that's my thinking right now.



Post Edited (05-05-05 15:42)