CH/CtC - Over-estimation of the Pace Impact (759 Views)
Posted by:
jimbo66 (IP Logged)
Date: May 09, 2005 02:03PM
CtC/CH,
Like a lot of us, I am still looking into why this race fell apart and why so many fast horses ran like crap.
I have read both of your posts about how pace was the determining factor and how ironically both of you are "upgrading" the effort of Bellamy Road in this race, where he ran like a snake, when you were both "down" on the horse after the Wood, where he ran like the second coming....
I just don't buy pace as a huge factor here. Closing Argument, a decidedly inferior horse than Bellamy Road, on anybody's figures, was a little more than a 1/2 length off of Bellamy Road at the first quarter mark. He dropped a little further off at the half and 3/4 mile mark, then even with him at the mile mark. CA stayed on well, albeit getting tired, and finished a solid second. Bellamy backed up to 7th.
Of course the pace was hot, but there have been hot paces in previous derbies and the races didn't fall apart. The Monarchos derby had a similar pace to it and Monarchos figured well in that race, as did the 3rd place finisher Congaree.
This Derby requires some deep analysis, and even then we may not get any conclusions. But to say "pace" decided it, is not accurate or even to say "it was just the result of the juicers not getting juice", understates it a lot.
This Derby will be tough to get over, at least for me. In most years, even without cashing, there are things to learn about the derby. The War Emblem lesson was to respect figures from "lesser tracks" or "less prestigious races", The Funny Cide lesson was not to buy into the "Empire Maker was toying with him in the Wood, he could have run much faster" crap, etc.etc. However, I can't find any lesson to learn from this derby, other than not to bet more on the Derby, just because it is the Derby.