Re: CH/CtC - Over-estimation of the Pace Impact (481 Views)
Date: May 09, 2005 03:14PM
Jimbo,
I don't know if you read all my posts (one to HP about Closing Argument), but I don't think the pace was totally responsible for the race falling apart. I think it certainly played a part though. I think several horses probably didn't appreciate the extra furlong too. In a race like the Derby with 20 horses, some horses with decent form also don't fire almost every year - maybe due to seasoning, preparation, getting overly excited due to crowds, getting outrun, ???, etc...
I think it's close to impossible to tell which factor contributed how much. I've seen the preliminary pace figure range for the race and it was fast enough to impact several horses.
This is an example of why some people think I talk in circles.
I think most of us would agree that the pace was "some factor". It's the degree that is debateable.
I think most of us would probably agree that distance was "some factor" for some horses.
There was actually some controversey about some of the figures.
I don't know of a way to be perfectly accurate on which contributed how much. So my assessement of the race and thus some of the horses is more of a range than a number.
Post Edited (05-09-05 15:49)