jimbo66 wrote:

> CtC/CH,
>
> Like a lot of us, I am still looking into why this race fell
> apart and why so many fast horses ran like crap.
>
> I have read both of your posts about how pace was the
> determining factor and how ironically both of you are
> "upgrading" the effort of Bellamy Road in this race, where he
> ran like a snake, when you were both "down" on the horse after
> the Wood, where he ran like the second coming....

Thought there were a few reasons to bet against Bellamania:

Bounce
Pace Scenario/Adversity (1st time new style - Inability to truly rate)
Post
Price

Also, you'll win far more races betting the next horse is NOT a superhorse than betting he IS.

>
> I just don't buy pace as a huge factor here. Closing Argument,
> a decidedly inferior horse than Bellamy Road, on anybody's
> figures, was a little more than a 1/2 length off of Bellamy
> Road at the first quarter mark. He dropped a little further
> off at the half and 3/4 mile mark, then even with him at the
> mile mark. CA stayed on well, albeit getting tired, and
> finished a solid second. Bellamy backed up to 7th.

C.A.'s race was better. Whether it will be next time is the issue.

> Of course the pace was hot, but there have been hot paces in
> previous derbies and the races didn't fall apart. The
> Monarchos derby had a similar pace to it and Monarchos figured
> well in that race, as did the 3rd place finisher Congaree.

Monarchos was not on top/bounce projection and he laid off that hot pace. He's of won Saturday as well.

> This Derby requires some deep analysis, and even then we may
> not get any conclusions. But to say "pace" decided it, is not
> accurate or even to say "it was just the result of the juicers
> not getting juice", understates it a lot.

Everyone has to draw their own conclusions. Mine are the outcome was a once in a lifetime result based upon the importance of the following factors in this order:

Bounce
Bias/Path
Pace
Injury
Drug Screening

> This Derby will be tough to get over, at least for me. In most
> years, even without cashing, there are things to learn about
> the derby. The War Emblem lesson was to respect figures from
> "lesser tracks" or "less prestigious races", The Funny Cide
> lesson was not to buy into the "Empire Maker was toying with
> him in the Wood, he could have run much faster" crap, etc.etc.
> However, I can't find any lesson to learn from this derby,
> other than not to bet more on the Derby, just because it is the
> Derby.

Empire Maker lost to Funny Cide on an injury and ground loss, which was very foreseeable.