Saddlecloth, you have to be careful. Indeed the Thoro-Pattern says the off race chances are 36% and an X race 40%, which sums to 76% as you state. But those percentages are based on the top of 1-1/4. An off race in this context is anywhere from 2-1/2 to 4. Star Parade's last 2 are 3 and 3-1/4, off races, yes, both also efforts good enough to win here given the post and weight. Moreover I would point out the each 3 she's run has either been followed by another 3 or better. So where the line rubs you pessimistically, I opt for a half-full view.

The ROTW is almost always a stakes race and as such we look at top efforts horses run and project whether they'll repeat, improve or regress, the emphasis being on tops. But one thing to remember and I must say I'm guilty of forgetting quite often, is that horses ususally don't run tops or new tops. Of course young horses are capable of jumping up at any time and we expect them too since they are developing. And we expect top efforts out of stakes horses because they're quality equines able to hold their form and run at the highest echelons of performance. That's what makes them stakes animals. But even the stakes performers eventually reach a peak off which they regress and then cycling behavior starts.

Look at the horses in this race. Excluding Santa Candida, who lacks US race experience, only one of the other seven comes in off a new top, Andujar. Now Hollywood Story and Alphabet Kisses got back to their tops last time, but the former has the conditions against her and and has had opportunities to break through many times before. The latter may break through but concedes weight to Star Parade, isn't as fast, and has a better chance according to Thoro-Pattern or pairing or running worse. She does have youth on her side, but 7-2?

Sorry, Star Parade is much more solid and has a better chance at 3-1 of running her race and winning than the other 2.