Re: ROTW (437 Views)
Posted by:
jimbo66 (IP Logged)
Date: June 04, 2005 12:50PM
Saddlecloth,
Couldn't agree more, you wrote what I was just planning to write.
Besides the obvious, like declining figures, one of the bigger signs of a horse being off form or declining is when the horse usually shows great natural speed and has suddenly lost it. This describes Star Parade. She looks like a filly off form to me. When she was right, she was on the lead immediately after the gates opened.
Even if she gets out of the gate today, she will be pressed hard by Alphabet Kisses, who ran a 43 and change half last time out.
Unfortunately, with a swift pace likely and Star Parade looking a little off, it looks like a race to skip, unless you can find a reason to believe that House of Fortune will run one of her good ones. If the pace is quick and they string out early, I don't think Hollywood Story is in for as much ground loss as Allan/Jerry suggest in the ROTW.
Although I agree with J-Dub, that if you are betting T-Graph methodology, you have to like Star Parade. I just think there are other factors here to consider.
Speaking of T-Graph methodology, looking at the figures for the Belmont next week, Giacomo looks like a possible pattern play off of paired up "0"'s. Although, I couldn't play him with a wooden nickel, as I am having trouble accepting either figure.