Interesting ROTW this week. I wish there were more horses in the race (I hate short fields).

I agree with the Thorograph Analysis on St. Liam. Unless something goes wrong, he looks very solid. The 7-5 is not so much fun (and not worth a win bet), but there are some possible solid combinations underneath him.

In general, I do not like the Zito entry. I actually think SS is due to run a better effort on this day than Commentator is, but Commentator looks to have this race set up beautifully for him pace and trip wise. What scares me is that (a) his one awful race was his only race around two turns (even the TGI for Distorted Humor shows his get slowing down the longer they go) and (b) his last was such a huge figure a big bounce is inevitable. Look at St. Liam -- he had the same sort of top as Commentator before the big jump up and he reacted sharply to his first negative 6 even off a big layoff and judicious handling. On the other hand, I seem to recall Left Bank coming into this race off a similar pattern and not having too much trouble (although he did end up dying pre-maturely). My recollection could be off on this as well. In any event, the 9-5 on the Zito entry is entirely unappetizing. If there wasn't the risk that Commentator gets a nice easy lead on the rail, I would happily bet against the entry.

I also agree with the Thorograph Analysis that the Pletcher-Johnny V and Pletcher-Bailey horses may well get overbet and present some nice/interesting opportunities underneath.

I find both Wiggins and Eurosilver appealing. Wiggins I think has a great pattern and I would forecast a new top in this race -- especially when the trainer change has a chance to really kick in. I sure hope Guidry can make the weight -- I hate that guy and have had incredibly aggravating experiences seeing him take horses unnecessarily wide -- if that is compounded with toting unnecessary extra pounds, I will really be on the war path if he misses by a narrow margin. I am worried that in Guidry's first race on this horse he pressed 4 wide (coming out of the 4 hole in a seven horse race). Coming out of the three hole and with some tactical speed, I hope this horse can save ground today and that Guidry does not let me down.

Eurosilver also has a great looking pattern to me. Recent breakthrough mid- 4yo year and nice rest coming after it. When he has hit other levels, he has tended to stay with them (this is a horse who only has one bounce his entire career). Hope Albarado makes weight and this horse does not go 6 wide like he did in his last G1 effort against St. Liam. (I promise I am not swayed by the Russian Tango by Nijinsky II on the bottom side of the pedigree).

I would bet St. Liam over Wiggins and Eurosilver and then Wiggins and Eurosilver to win. If there were more horses in the race, I would find trifectas and Superfectas VERY appetizing, but the 25% trifecta take when there are only 220 possible trifecta combinations is way too steep (most Derbies have more exacta combinations than that many trifecta combinations). In my experience, the steep take is only worth going against if there are enough combinations out there to help shoulder the burden.