Looking at Saturdays late pick 4 at Spa...

Classic Campaign is impeccably bred for 1 mile on the grass, being by Rahy out of a Red Ransom mare. Two of the contenders in this race, United and Smooth Bid, will carry 123 pounds on the basis of their inconsequential main course stakes wins. I will watch with curiosity Sir Greeley, who is showing less and less early lick in recent starts, usually not a good sign.

If Luzzi or Cornelio V were riding Classic Campaign, he might be 4/1 or 5/1. With Bailey, look for 5/2 or 2/1 or 9/5

In the Test, agreed Jimbo, Sense of Style may have shown us all she has as a 2YO. Acey Deucey's TG Pattern tells us there is a 40% likelihood of full regression off of her last race. Leave Me Alone, Maddalena and Flying Glitter look to occupy themselves on the lead, setting up In the Gold, who looks every bit as good to me as she did in the Acorn. Arguably fastest and classiest in here, Stevens on for Bejarano, the bad news is 7/5, not 7/2 like she was in Acorn.

Whitney: Commentator just ran a half in 45.4. He's two lengths in front of St. Liam, who has been kind of anxious (though not rank) to go up to the pacesetter. Eurosilver, Limehouse and Pollard's Vision need to be perfectly placed at this point if they are to have any chance of getting Liam, no more than 8 lengths or so behind Commentator.

At this point IMO there are two possibilities. (1) Liam kicks by Commentator, kicks away from all the rest, pays $4.10, and the Liam/ Roses in May hype machine kicks in or (2) When Liam collars Commentator, Commentator stiffens to the challenge (alot of dry cleaning analogies there). Tom Durkin bellows "They went three quarters in one oh nine and one!". Scenario 2 gives Eurosilver or one of the Pletchers a chance to go by, if they have been perfectly placed and are cranked for the race.

My feeling is that there is a 75-85% chance that Scenario 1 materializes. In the instance of Scenario 2, there is still a 60% or so chance that a leg weary Liam holds off the three outsiders and emerges victorious.

Race 10, Wholehearted's TG# from his last race in 04 makes him open lengths better than these. He ran second to Commentator when Commentator broke his maiden. Price could be ok off "meaningful" 05 debut with low profile Jara returning to ride. All Flying Z horses seem to be cranked up for the meet, whether trained by Biancone or Serpe or Martin family. The others could be Classic Explorer (good Sara T/J combo) or Hottothetouch (ran well at Spa as a 2YO).

The bet: $25 pick 4 Classic Campaign/ In The Gold/ Liam/ Wholehearted.
$ 7 pick 4 CC/ ITG/Euro,Limestone,Pollard/Wholehearted.

Will be arriving at Spa in about 24 hours. Where is the sign in for the TG golf outing? (just joking)