I also think that horses like Swingforthefences (coming off a dead rail) and the improving Eurosilver might be better values in the exacta than either Pletcher horse given the way TP is being bet these days - though I think either Pletcher horse could easily get 2nd money here.

Personally, I think St. Liam is MUCH more likely to run his best race (or close) than Commentator is to duplicate his last speed figure. Call it what you will, but even if Commentator is equally effective at 9F as he was at 7F (no lock), he had very easy circumstances in his last. It was a 4 horse field of very weak ALW horses. He sprinted clear of them and set an unpressured pace every step of the way. This time, assuming the real St. Liam shows up, he will have a quality Grade 1 horse breathing down his neck at some point. We'll see if he can repulse a bid like that and run just as fast. We'll see if he can even duplicate his most recent effort.

I doubt St Liam will be long enough odds to bet to win and I don't think Commentator is weak enough to toss out of the exacta with confidence (especially because Sir S could save the place spot). Commentator doesn't face a bad pace scenario here. He will probably be loose again. He just won't have it as easy as he had it last time if St Liam is sharp enough to hook him on the seond turn. So he could last for second.

I'm going to hope that Commentator takes enough money to make St Liam bettable to win.