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I hope others share your thinking on Wiggins. It is that type of thinking that causes a horse to be "totally overlooked" as you say.

Winning over half a million dollars and finishing in the money 20 out of 23 tries is not bad for a horse that is a "little cheap." Running 1.5 or faster in 9 out of those 23 races (22 of them for Anthony Granitz) is also not too shabby. He looks like a pretty solid animal to me! I recognize that his breeding is obscure and a lot of that money may have been won in restricted Ill-bred races, but this is a horse that has been great for his owners. If you are saying that his form doesn't look so good and he hasn't done well in graded races, this is the exact type of situation where performance figures give a horseplayer an edge over players who rely on the racing form and class handicapping. Your nice and classy horse which you prefer for the overlooked value, Swingforthefences, has never run as fast as Wiggins (and that is true even if you account for their age difference -- just compare their 3 yo and 4 yo campaigns). I do happen to agree that Swingforthefences has a nice pattern and should also run a top today, but I suspect that Wiggins will run a better figure and represent a better value.

The reason I like Wiggins is his pattern. This is a horse who was trained by an obscure trainer and took every winter off. To me, it looks like the guy liked to race this horse into shape. In every single one of his campaigns off the rest, it took him several races to get down to good numbers. This is his fourth race of this campaign. In each of his campaigns, his fourth race was a significant new top. In this campaign, his last figure (which for some strange reason most people are viewing as a potential knock out number) merely paired up his 4 y.o. old top (a level he hit twice last year and which was not an outrageous jump up figure). Looking at the way his campaigns have gone the last two years, he does not seem like the type who should bounce just because he got back to where he was. I feel very confident this horse will run a top in this race. I know Robespierre has indicated that the Dale Romans magic isn't as good in NY as in Kentucky, but Roses in May did pretty well in this race last year if I remember correctly. Also, Romans first race with this horse at Churchill did not get any better effort out of this horse than Anthony Granitz was able to get. You would think that Romans would show some improvement for the trainer change.

The problem is what will a '-1.5' get him? While I like the low weight, I hate the jockey. As you point out, he may try to go with Commentator. However, I only see two outcomes from that -- (1) He keeps up with him and forces Commentator to go wide on the first turn and also causes both he and Commentator to shoot their wad early. Since I will also be betting Eurosilver, this scenario is not too awful for me (but it is one possible reason Wiggins may not fire his top, and (2) Commentator shoots clear and Wiggins cannot keep up but is clear of the others in second on the rail. This scenario is fine with me. He will save ground on the first turn. St. Liam will need to go around him AND Commentator wasting some of his likely superior effort (which will also be partly wasted by the extra weight). Of course, there is always the possibility that Guidry will figure out other novel ways to waste a good effort (not including by not making wieght), but c'est las vie.

Anyway, I agree with all including yourself that this will be a tough race to bet. The only angle I like is goign against the Pletcher horses (and Bailey and Velasquez), but that can only produce so much value in a seven horse race where the first and second choices are strong contenders.