I guess I'm going to be the lone dissenter in just handing this race over to Saint Liam. I think this horse can ship just fine as evident by previous country hopping travels. His "subpar" performances can be explained as just reactions to huge efforts. The question is whether his last was a huge effort? I would argue that it wasn't huge, but it certainly was an effort and expect him to regress a point or two off of his last. That being said, given the weight concession and the fact that he'll more than likely lose ground on the far turn makes him VERY vulnerable at what's sure to be a short price. I agree with others that the keys to wagering on this race are Eurosilver and Wiggins. I especially like Wiggins for the points mentioned in previous posts, second time Romans, racing into shape, never reacted badly to top efforts and a 10 pound weight advantage (that Guidry seems to have made).