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Re: Congrats HP, but I'll take real money anytime (1154 Views)
Posted by: Jason L. (IP Logged)
Date: June 10, 2002 04:26AM

A couple of comments about some of the inane comments that have been posted. It is true that professional handicappers give picks the day before and that is how they are judged. But anybody who listens to professional handicappers is an idiot. Why do any of you bother buying the sheets if you are concerned about what a professional handicapper thinks? The point is that the sheets are tool to do well at the track. Regardless of what anyone posted in the handicapping contest, the sheets were invaluable that day.

The handicapping contest only allowed the betting of $1,000. Obviously, DP keyed Perfect Drift in the contest because he did not want to blow half his money on the Belmont. But if you believe that an even money favorite is going to run out of the money, but have no strong opinion on the other horses, then you should be willing to spend a lot of money to make a lot of money. On the sheets, Sarava had a good pattern, but was a little to slow to be competive. Any sheet player who says he was the most likely winner in the race is probably lying. But I considered him to be the only horse in the race with a positve pattern, and I often bet horses who are not the most likely winner if the odds deserve it. Sarava at 70-1 definitely deserved it, as did MDO for that matter. I thought Perfect Drift was the most likely winner, but at 5 to 1, there were better bets in the race. That is why pre-race handicapping contests are stupid and certainly not a test of the quality of the respective sheets (Even though I did post a contest entry because everyone else did, I was on record as saying these contests are stupid before the race. This day confirmed that).

As both DP and I have said on different occassions on this board well before this contest ever arose, the ability to throw out horses is at least as valuable as the ability to pick winners, and often more so. JB's comment about ROI is pretty lame. A $15,000 tri and a $145,000 super (eminently hittable if you were willing to spend the money) will make any ROI look good.

I love how people always say that a horse "would have won" if he only had a good start. Touch Gold would have won the Preakness a few years ago, but for his bad start. He ran a huge race despite his almost fall, which was worse than WE's, and almost won. Touch Gold then came back to win the Belmont. WE stumbled and then ran like the bounce candidate he was, and I will be surprised if see him running again anytime soon. So, he only would have lost by 10 lengths if he had not stumbled. Big deal. Only Secretariat has ever run a good Belmont off of a pattern similar to WE's pattern (actually, I should say similar to Secretariat's Derby and Preakness, Secretariat had a much stronger pre-derby pattern than WE), and as we now know, WE is no Secretariat.

Look, just about everyone did pretty badly in the handicapping contest. There were many important scratches and one race was taken off of the turf, wich rendered any contest results suspect to begin with. Maybe some of you spent the time to handiap each race for scratches and surface changes, but I doubt most spent the time. Further, declaring victory because you lost less money than the other guy is kind of lame. If any of you took the results of this handicapping contest as evidence of what sheets to buy, then you deserve whatever choice you make.

If you don't want to believe DP, fine. If you think it is tacky to post about hits at the track when you made picks ahead of time, fine. But if any of you think the Ragozin Sheets were not effective on Belmont day, then you guys are even more myopic than I thought. Personally, I can't tell you whether the TG sheets were also effective, as I have not seen them and the handicapping contest certainly told me nothing. I will be interested in comparing them when JB posts them.



Subject Written By Posted
Congrats HP, but I'll take real money anytime (1774 Views) David G. Patent 06/09/2002 03:47AM
Re: Congrats HP, but I'll take real money anytime (1076 Views) Jason L. 06/09/2002 05:03AM
Re: Congrats HP, but I'll take real money anytime (1198 Views) Anonymous User 06/09/2002 05:32AM
Re: Congrats HP, but I'll take real money anytime (1071 Views) Michael D. 06/09/2002 11:47AM
Re: Congrats HP, but I'll take real money anytime (1063 Views) HP 06/09/2002 01:32PM
Re: Sherpa Guide. (1101 Views) Mall 06/09/2002 01:48PM
Re: Sherpa Guide. (1073 Views) superfreakicus 06/09/2002 03:32PM
Re: Sherpa Guide. (1072 Views) Mall 06/09/2002 10:01PM
Re: Sherpa Guide. (1032 Views) Alydar in California 06/09/2002 11:14PM
re: a line too long to fit here (HP) (1098 Views) superfreakicus 06/10/2002 04:19AM
The game, not the contest. (1125 Views) Mall 06/10/2002 06:29AM
and what are we talkin' about..... (1129 Views) superfreakicus 06/10/2002 04:57PM
Re: and what are we talkin' about..... (1160 Views) HP 06/10/2002 05:11PM
Re: and what are we talkin' about..... (1077 Views) HP 06/10/2002 05:11PM
Post Them Signers (1159 Views) Anonymous User 06/09/2002 01:23PM
Re: Post Them Signers (1085 Views) Jerry Jr. 06/09/2002 03:26PM
Re: Post Them Signers (1123 Views) HP 06/09/2002 03:50PM
HyPocritical (1028 Views) Jerry Jr. 06/09/2002 04:37PM
Re: HyPocritical (1104 Views) HP 06/09/2002 04:54PM
Typical (1081 Views) Jerry Jr. 06/09/2002 05:01PM
Acorn? (1073 Views) Anonymous User 06/09/2002 11:44PM
Re: Acorn? (1016 Views) Anonymous User 06/09/2002 11:48PM
Re: Acorn? (1164 Views) TGJB 06/10/2002 04:15PM
Re: sheets vs. tg (1093 Views) superfreakicus 06/09/2002 03:51PM
Re: sheets vs. tg (1127 Views) HP 06/09/2002 03:54PM
Re: sheets vs. tg (1085 Views) tegger 06/09/2002 04:33PM
Re: Congrats HP, but I'll take real money anytime (1018 Views) TGJB 06/09/2002 06:54PM
Re: Congrats HP, but I'll take real money anytime (1110 Views) superfreakicus 06/09/2002 07:13PM
Re: Congrats HP, but I'll take real money anytime (986 Views) Michael D. 06/09/2002 09:32PM
Re: the battle of Saratoga (1178 Views) superfreakicus 06/10/2002 01:55AM
Re: Congrats HP, but I'll take real money anytime (1158 Views) Alydar in California 06/09/2002 09:55PM
Re: Congrats HP, but I'll take real money anytime (1154 Views) Jason L. 06/10/2002 04:26AM
Nunzio, Superfreak, Jason L., class and the lessons learned (1241 Views) HP 06/10/2002 12:17PM
Re: Nunzio, Superfreak, Jason L., HP, class and the lessons learned (1064 Views) superfreakicus 06/10/2002 05:20PM
Re: I thought you were leaving? HP (1159 Views) superfreakicus 06/10/2002 05:26PM
Belmont Recap (1070 Views) David Patent 06/10/2002 06:30PM
Re: Belmont Recap (1125 Views) David Patent 06/10/2002 06:46PM
Re: Belmont Recap (1190 Views) HP 06/10/2002 07:08PM
Re: Nunzio, Superfreak, Jason L., HP, class and the lessons learned (1190 Views) HP 06/10/2002 06:11PM
Re: Congrats HP, but I'll take real money anytime (1116 Views) Michael D. 06/10/2002 03:18PM
Re: Congrats HP, but I'll take real money anytime (1010 Views) TGJB 06/10/2002 04:13PM
Re: Congrats HP, but I'll take real money anytime (1147 Views) Jason L. 06/10/2002 04:59PM
Re: Congrats HP, but I'll take real money anytime (1155 Views) TGJB 06/10/2002 06:57PM
Re: Congrats HP, but I'll take real money anytime (1101 Views) Jerry Jr. 06/10/2002 07:30PM
Re: Congrats HP, but I'll take real money anytime (1045 Views) TGJB 06/10/2002 08:39PM
Re: Congrats HP, but I'll take real money anytime (1019 Views) Jerry Jr. 06/10/2002 09:25PM
Re: Congrats HP, but I'll take real money anytime (1121 Views) TGJB 06/11/2002 04:13PM
Re: Congrats HP, but I'll take real money anytime (1122 Views) Jerry Jr. 06/11/2002 06:27PM
Re: Congrats HP, but I'll take real money anytime (982 Views) TGJB 06/11/2002 07:12PM
Re: Congrats HP, but I'll take real money anytime (1103 Views) Jerry Jr. 06/11/2002 08:14PM
Re: Congrats HP, but I'll take real money anytime (1063 Views) ed overdyk 06/11/2002 12:22AM
Re: Congrats HP, but I'll take real money anytime (1032 Views) Jason L. 06/11/2002 01:07AM
Re: Congrats HP, but I'll take real money anytime (1116 Views) David G. Patent 06/11/2002 03:19AM
Re: Congrats HP, but I'll take real money anytime (1089 Views) HP 06/11/2002 04:48PM


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