A bunch of things here:

HP -- I saluted you and Nunzio and anyone else who bested me in the contest and I make no excuses. I lost. And I'm sorry you don't like my character but if that's the price I have to pay for celebrating a little on the message boards, then so be it. BTW, I have previously taken stands on horses (usually against) and publicly eaten crow when I was wrong (e.g., Fusaichi Pegasus in the Derby), so I am not at all ashamed to post when I have some big winners. Besides, do you really think that we'd have half as much fun on these boards if it weren't for some good needling here and there?

Finally, for the record, my post on this board Sat. night was not just the 'Icky Shuffle' writ Internet. I asked several TG/Rag. related questions and peppered the post with handicapping observations -- almost all of which have gone ignored in the wake of a lot of whining and crying by several others on this board.

Alydar -- Sticks and stones. You did you not have the guts to take a stand on any horse in any of the races. That says enough about you.

Jerry -- My ROI for the Belmont Stakes was 976%. For the day it was 486%. I bet 7 races and cashed 4 of them.

Let's get a few other things taken care of:

Handicapping contests:

1) I agree completely that we should not hold the public handicappers to the same ROI standards as we hold ourselves. But I don't recall bashing any handicappers for their ROI, just for their reasoning.

2) The way you bet in a handicapping contest is fundamentally different than you bet in real life, and depending on what kind of contest you are in, your strategy will be different. For example, in a 500 handicapper field, one has to take a Nunzio-like approach and try to make a big score. If you spread and hit a few races, it's almost impossible to come out on top. I took a middle ground in this contest, given that there were about 10-15 entrants, playing about 1/2 the races and skewing my bets toward the exotics and hoping that the 'go-for-brokers' like Nunzio were wrong.

3) Odds make the play and you don't know the odds until the race is run. Race 3: True I did not have Sherpa Guide in my contest tri. True he was not a magnificent looking horse on the sheets. But my approach to the race was to make sure I hit the tri if Personable Pete was in the top three, given that I had tossed the two overbet 2nd and 3rd choices. At 34:1 I had to use SG 'defensively'. If you play the races too fine with exotics you will lose a lot of sleep. In the Belmont I ended up betting 3 horses to win at the track: Sunday Break, MDO, and Sarava. Since I had Sarava at 30:1, I needed at least 60:1 to bet him. Given that only 1 or 2 horses out of the 31 that ran in the Derby and Preakness went off at 50:1 or more, he was not a cinch as of Friday night to be enough value for me. PD got bet down too much on Sat. to be a bet.

4) Bankroll matters -- With $1,000 dollars and a desire to spread, I limited my Belmont plays somewhat (27% of my bankroll). In reality, I had a significantly larger bankroll (about $3,000) so was free to make more plays. I keyed PD in supers and took the opportunity to toss WE and the hopeless Artax Too and Like a Hero, leaving me with 8 horses. Given what happened to me in the Derby, where I left WE off the top of my ticket I was not going to make that mistake again, especially when you have a 6:5 shot that you think is a clear toss.

As for races 11 and 12, frankly I didn't have the energy on Friday to even look much at them in any detail. I knew that it was going to cost a lot of $ to play the tris and my $1,000 was already spoken for, so shame on me I guess.

TG vs. the SHEETS

We have beaten the methodology horse to death. In terms of performance on Belmont day, again, I have no idea how the horses I bet or tossed based on sheet pattern (OTF, YG, Sarava, Quiet One, America's Guy, etc.) looked on TG and only HP and JB have come forward even partially with an answer (OTF, YG and Sarava). That would make a good discussion.

The profitability piece (the one we care most about) involves interpretation and betting strategy and execution.

Just look at how Friedman and I handicapped the Belmont using the same product. I thought War Emblem should have been 12:1. Friedman had him at 3:1 or 4:1. I thought MDO was good value, Friedman tossed him. And then there's the betting. You could easily have analyzed the race well and done lousy at the windows. I have blown my share of $20k tris and $80k supers because of stupid betting moves. Saturday was just one of those days when I happened to handicap well, bet well and get a bit lucky.

As for Saratoga, my schedule of betting is as follows:

June 10 to July 11 -- no betting
July 12 and 13 -- betting
July 19 and 20 -- no betting
July 26 and 27 -- betting
August-Oct 25 -- probably no betting; might sneak a day or two in there
Oct. 26 (BC day) -- BETTING!

So, super f., HP, and anybody else, I'd be glad to jump back in and do another contest with you in July. And the BC is a no-brainer. If we do, though, and you guys lose the contest but hit some big winners at the track, please don't be shy about telling us.