Gomez's Choice; Odds Line (727 Views)
Posted by:
BitPlayer (IP Logged)
Date: April 24, 2006 05:59PM
Jimbo –
Enjoyed your post.
I, too, have been curious about Gomez choosing Bob And John over Sinister Minister. My current thinking is that it may be a function of ownership more than anything. I think Gomez hired Ron Anderson to position him as a national go-to rider in the Jerry Bailey mold, and riding for Stonerside when in doubt fits with that desire (as does riding first call for Pletcher in Johnny V's absence). That said, I'm not sure I'd be happy about the situation if I owned Sinister Minister. He's obviously a tough horse to ride, and it would have been helpful if Baffert had gotten a jockey for the Blue Grass who was willing to stay aboard for the Derby.
I've been trying to guess at the odds line for the Derby. I'm starting with Watchmaker's line in the DRF, which seems to add up about right if you assume a 16% takeout. You've got Sinister Minister, Sweetnorthernsaint, and Bob And John all at lower prices than Watchmaker. Your prices make sense to me, but I can't figure out who's going to drift higher.