Re: Gomez's Choice; Odds Line (636 Views)
Posted by:
jimbo66 (IP Logged)
Date: April 24, 2006 06:36PM
Bitplayer,
With the field not fully determined an accurate odds line is tough to make. For what it is worth (not much), here is my current odds line. I update it a little based on workouts and draw. For now, I have included Sunriver and Flashy Bull instead of Seaside Retreat and Mister Triester. That obviously is a guess.
I always create two odds lines, one which is what I think the odds will be on Derby day and then what I think the actual chances of the horses are. This is what I think the odds will be on Derby day, as I don't do my own line until after the draw.
There is a 16% takeout in the line, with about 1% "breakage".
Brother Derek 4 to 1
Lawyer Ron 9 to 2
Sweetnorthernsaint 8 to 1
Barbaro 8 to 1
Bob and John 12 to 1
Point Determined 12 to 1
Sinister Minister 12 to 1
AP Warrior 15 to 1
Bluegrass Cat 25 to 1
Jazil 25 to 1
Steppenwolfer 25 to 1
Sunriver 30 to 1
Keyed Entry 30 to 1
Private Vow 30 to 1
Sharp Humor 50 to 1
Showing Up 50 to 1
Storm Treasure 50 to 1
Cause to Believe 80 to 1
Deputy Glitters 80 to 1
Flashy Bull 80 to 1