3 YO NEG Top Study (1347 Views)
Posted by:
NoCarolinaTony (IP Logged)
Date: May 17, 2006 11:50PM
Jerry,
You mention in your analysis since 2000 31 horses regressed after achieving a top of -1 in the first six months of their 3 yo year. Can you tell me how many of those were at a mile or less? How many at 6F?How many were one turn races?how many bounced going two turns for the first time? How many on turf sprints?
I can name 4 (I think).All were in same race Afleet Alex, Bandini, Bellamy Road, Greeley's Galaxy. Would you consider that an anomoly or specific racing circumstances that may have caused all 4 in the same race to run poorly?
Can you also tell me how many horses since (2000 lets say) achieved their top in of a -1 or better in a 10F race and how they performed in their next start?
My point being here is that the sample chosen here tells a story but the data may be skewed, and the sample size no where near large enough to draw an absolute conclusion. The story sounds compelling however.
I also recently heard that no horse can win the Kentucky derby off of 5 week layoff. You get my point.
NC Tony
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/17/2006 11:56PM by NoCarolinaTony.