miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> NC Tony,
>
>
> I agree and how many in that analysis:
>
> 1.Raced on the much more forgiving grass surface
> in their critical first few races during physical
> development.You know, knees closing, bones and
> muscles strengthening et al.

Well, he ran 8.5f in 140 flat as a November 2 yo. The three DRF variants for the turf courses were 05, 04, and 09. That's a fast time and those are hard turf courses.

>
> 2.Were undefeated in beating 71 runners at 5
> different tracks, on turf, wet dirt, dry dirt and
> all routes.

Irrelevant.

>
> 3.Ran their last quarter in 24.1 in their neg fig
> ROUTE performance, on their own courage.


I have a major issue with this and the whole thing is overblown. Here's his approx. internal fractions: 23.23, 23.64, 24.41, 25.74, 24.34. The fourth quarter is extremely bizarre and I can't explain what was going on (wind, track condition, whatever) because MANY horses ran a monster final quarter mile:

Bluegrass Cat 24.84
Steppenwolfer 24.14
Jazil 23.54!!!!
Bro Derek 24.04

One of the strangest 10f dirt races I can remember... this Derby was really 8f.


> 4.Had equal type breeding.

Irrelevant


>
> I'll save you the time. The answer to all is
> NONE.The.I think the analysis is painting all neg
> 1's with the same brush and not comparing apples
> to apples.
>

>
> They all get beat sooner or later and if Barbaro
> does, his last big fig may be one of MANY
> posssible reasons.This horse does not fit anywhere
> near the usual profile of a TC participant
> (started routing, exclusive early grass,unusual
> spacing)
>
>
> I would love to take a shot against 3/5 but the
> analysis is a weak comparison and the value on the
> other runners is not enticing to me.

When a huge majority of the P3 and P4 tickets will be dead because Barbaro will be singled, there will be value.

>
> Mike