i like the way you think ezgoer89. My guess it that nickname adds smarts to an already smart guy.

The Key of Course is that Barbaro will be about 3-5 judging by all the hype. That Derby does on its Face look impressive, however scrutiny reveals some holes in it. My personal view is that he did not run quite as fast as many are saying, so in that regard a bounce is less likely. However, he will not get the benefit of pace and path he received last by all appearances and to my eye he is a horse to consider as a target upon Regression. I'm confident he will regress. Its merely a question of the others firing and if they do any regression is likely to be sufficient to mar that Perfect Record.

If he doesnt go down Saturday, we'll get him in three weeks. We just have to be sure to come up with the correct vanquisher. To me that is the challenge.



ezgoer89 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> miff Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > NC Tony,
> >
> >
> > I agree and how many in that analysis:
> >
> > 1.Raced on the much more forgiving grass
> surface
> > in their critical first few races during
> physical
> > development.You know, knees closing, bones
> and
> > muscles strengthening et al.
>
> Well, he ran 8.5f in 140 flat as a November 2 yo.
> The three DRF variants for the turf courses were
> 05, 04, and 09. That's a fast time and those are
> hard turf courses.
>
> >
> > 2.Were undefeated in beating 71 runners at 5
> > different tracks, on turf, wet dirt, dry dirt
> and
> > all routes.
>
> Irrelevant.
>
> >
> > 3.Ran their last quarter in 24.1 in their neg
> fig
> > ROUTE performance, on their own courage.
>
>
> I have a major issue with this and the whole thing
> is overblown. Here's his approx. internal
> fractions: 23.23, 23.64, 24.41, 25.74, 24.34.
> The fourth quarter is extremely bizarre and I
> can't explain what was going on (wind, track
> condition, whatever) because MANY horses ran a
> monster final quarter mile:
>
> Bluegrass Cat 24.84
> Steppenwolfer 24.14
> Jazil 23.54!!!!
> Bro Derek 24.04
>
> One of the strangest 10f dirt races I can
> remember... this Derby was really 8f.
>
>
> > 4.Had equal type breeding.
>
> Irrelevant
>
>
> >
> > I'll save you the time. The answer to all is
> > NONE.The.I think the analysis is painting all
> neg
> > 1's with the same brush and not comparing
> apples
> > to apples.
> >
>
> >
> > They all get beat sooner or later and if
> Barbaro
> > does, his last big fig may be one of MANY
> > posssible reasons.This horse does not fit
> anywhere
> > near the usual profile of a TC participant
> > (started routing, exclusive early
> grass,unusual
> > spacing)
> >
> >
> > I would love to take a shot against 3/5 but
> the
> > analysis is a weak comparison and the value
> on the
> > other runners is not enticing to me.
>
> When a huge majority of the P3 and P4 tickets will
> be dead because Barbaro will be singled, there
> will be value.
>
> >
> > Mike
>
>
>