Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> i like the way you think ezgoer89. My guess it
> that nickname adds smarts to an already smart
> guy.
>
> The Key of Course is that Barbaro will be about
> 3-5 judging by all the hype. That Derby does on
> its Face look impressive, however scrutiny reveals
> some holes in it. My personal view is that he did
> not run quite as fast as many are saying, so in
> that regard a bounce is less likely. However, he
> will not get the benefit of pace and path he
> received last by all appearances and to my eye he
> is a horse to consider as a target upon
> Regression. I'm confident he will regress. Its
> merely a question of the others firing and if they
> do any regression is likely to be sufficient to
> mar that Perfect Record.
>
> If he doesnt go down Saturday, we'll get him in
> three weeks. We just have to be sure to come up
> with the correct vanquisher. To me that is the
> challenge.


CTC - someone who privately posted on another forum brought up a great point - that a Triple Crown winner needs a lot of things, one of them being weak competition. Afleet Alex had it all set up last year and couldn't get it done, check out who finished behind him in the Preakness and Belmont and he loses the triple crown to a 50-1 and 70-1.

Barbaro, should he win the Preakness, will have Sunriver, Strong Contender, Bob and John, Point Determined, Jazil, and Steppenwolfer (and surely others) ready and loaded to take him down. And make no mistake, there will be Smarty-type riding tactics again... someone (or two) will run with him early, then the E/P types will try him on the turn and finally Birdstone-like off-the-pacers will try to grab him late.

However, I think the point is moot...