So, nobody is going to top Kev's post before the Oaks, but I do take a little bit of satisfaction in the fact that my first post here said the BG was a total throw out and the real question was whether BC's Thoro-pattern could be taken at face value. I lost $6k trying to hit the super, but more than covered in cover tri's.

I've read what amounts to a growing chorus of reasons why Barbaro is certain to bounce and lose. As much as anyone who posts here I am a slave to data, analysis, patterns, etc... But the obvious question seems to be eluding everyone;

In the 31 horse's who ran neg before June 30th, or in any KY Derby winner EVER, or contender EVER...find me a horse who has run 6 races in his lifetime, all at two turns, half on the grass, half on the dirt, who is undefeated, who wins by the Derby by the largest margin since 1946, and runs the best Derby TG fig in their history.......

There isn't one even close. Christ, the turf/dirt thing is unbelievable in itself!!! Let me get this straight; the fastest Derby winner ever (on TG) who wins by the largest margin since 1946, starts off his career 3 for 3 on the turf, twice in stakes???? Are you kidding me????

Does he figure to bounce? Yes. Does BD look tough? Yes. Does anything he's done so far figure?? No.

It's called an 'outlier'. Like Michael Jordan. Like Wayne Gretzky. Like Jerry Rice. Using the past to predict the future is a smart thing to do, but it isn't always right. I'm as big a fan of anyone of beating odds on favorites in the Superfecta, but we should all be rooting for this horse.

I think he wins. Chuckles, your pick is?????