t mac-- if they switch the race to the grass, I'll be all over Barbaro.

I make Barbaro about 10% to pair up the number (we'll give him a 100% chance of winning if he does), 30% chance of backing up around 2 points( 50% chance of winning if he does, so add 15%), and 5% of winning if he backs up further than that. That gives him a 30% chance of winning overall (2.3-1) which makes him at least as likely as anyone else-- and a huge underlay. I also make him about 50% to be out of the top 3, between a significant bounce and a potentially wide trip.

All of which make him both the most likely winner and a huge bet-against (I wonder if Chris is reading this).

Tony, I'm surprised at you. Aside from the above, your 2 week comment (same for everybody) is dead wrong. First of all, it's not-- it's worse for horses off new tops, and some horses need more time in general than others. Matz has been spacing this horse's races-- you think if they asked him when he wanted them to run the Preakness he would have said this week?

Second of all, any negative factor (or random factor) is a much bigger issue for a short priced horse than a longshot, because your margin for error is much less. If you are betting longshots, chaos is your friend-- I don't think you would want to take odds-on on a horse running in slop for the first time, or over grass. Here we have a group of horses going on short rest, increasing the chance that they will X-- and that random factor has to work against the favorite.