The people on this site-- especially those of us involved with Victory Gallop-- never bought into the 2 starts business. We've also done studies-- mentioned in the Derby seminar-- that show that horses that only have 2 3yo starts are MORE likely to run a new top in the Derby.

As for 7%, in this case it was 5%-- Barbaro ran the only new top.

None of which is in conflict with what I said in the seminar about Barbaro. We measure performance by TG figures here, not wins, and you're going to have to explain why having ability on 2 surfaces changes things.

They all look great when they run their tops. He may be one of the 20% that don't go back at least 2 points, the 1 out of 3 that don't go back 4 points or more. But at the prices, I'll take my chances.

By the way, nobody has talked about the real X factors-- Solis and Desormeaux. One's a passenger, the other is capable of anything at any time. And when was the last time Prado was inside horses?

Going home.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 05/19/2006 08:53PM by TGJB.