tmcdevitt Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> So, nobody is going to top Kev's post before the
> Oaks, but I do take a little bit of satisfaction
> in the fact that my first post here said the BG
> was a total throw out and the real question was
> whether BC's Thoro-pattern could be taken at face
> value. I lost $6k trying to hit the super, but
> more than covered in cover tri's.
>
> I've read what amounts to a growing chorus of
> reasons why Barbaro is certain to bounce and lose.
> As much as anyone who posts here I am a slave to
> data, analysis, patterns, etc... But the obvious
> question seems to be eluding everyone;
>
> In the 31 horse's who ran neg before June 30th, or
> in any KY Derby winner EVER, or contender
> EVER...find me a horse who has run 6 races in his
> lifetime, all at two turns, half on the grass,
> half on the dirt, who is undefeated, who wins by
> the Derby by the largest margin since 1946, and
> runs the best Derby TG fig in their
> history.......
>
> There isn't one even close. Christ, the turf/dirt
> thing is unbelievable in itself!!! Let me get
> this straight; the fastest Derby winner ever (on
> TG) who wins by the largest margin since 1946,
> starts off his career 3 for 3 on the turf, twice
> in stakes???? Are you kidding me????
>
> Does he figure to bounce? Yes. Does BD look
> tough? Yes. Does anything he's done so far
> figure?? No.
>
> It's called an 'outlier'. Like Michael Jordan.
> Like Wayne Gretzky. Like Jerry Rice. Using the
> past to predict the future is a smart thing to do,
> but it isn't always right. I'm as big a fan of
> anyone of beating odds on favorites in the
> Superfecta, but we should all be rooting for this
> horse.
>
> I think he wins. Chuckles, your pick is?????

Honestly, I don't have a strong opinion on the race. I will bet small attempting to win big.

Lets assume Barbaro is the Super Horse I "suspected" Sinister Minister might be. He is going to be 3-5 or there abouts. If someone bets AGAINST Barbaro and he wins Who is going to lament: "Dayum I could have gotten 3-5 on the Triple Crown winner in the Preakness"? Certainly not I. Lets assume you do key him in first. Who you gonnna put in second and third and get them to finish in those slots? I just don't see exceptional value in favoring Barbaro.

Additionally, the public is reaching fever pitch on Barbaro. Matz is talking confident too and if you're looking to score a big upset you have to like that kind of talk. Matz is certainly an exceptional man but he puts his pants on the same way every morning as guys like Bobby Frankel and Todd Pletcher and I don't think those two have any Preaknesses either.

My strategy will be to beat Barbaro out of as much as possible. With luck, I think he could miss the Tri, hoping to keep him out of the Super is probably too much to ask, but I will bet that way as well. To my eye Brother Derek and SNS had horror trips in the Derby and huge excuses. Especially SnS. Furthermore, its my opinion that Barbaro's win was over inflated by path. My concern is the pace. I think it will be set by Like Now and the trainer is very good right now. It may be warmer for Bro Derek than he'd prefer and SnS, Bernardini, Diabolical and Barbaro figure to lay close too.

I disagree with Brad Free about most of what he puts in print. I really don't think he can handicap to save his life, but he did write a blurb today about Greeley's Legacy that I tend to agree with. I'll have him in second, but it won't be with Barbaro up top. By the way Free picked Wandering Boy today in the Special. He was odds on too.